A rare Sunday night College Football primetime game blesses sports fans this week. To what do we owe this occasion? Florida State and LSU travel to New Orleans for the kickoff of Brian Kelly's tenure as LSU's head coach.
We've already been through every possible Week 1 opening, so we'll spare you the details and get right to what you came her for.
Week 1: Tigers vs. Seminoles Betting Lines
- The Spread: LSU -3
- Over/Under 51.5
- Moneyline: LSU -161, FSU +133
The Spread: Tigers Get the Early Edge
LSU currently enters this game as 3-point favorites over the 'Noles. Florida State played last week in a Week 0 blowout win vs Duquesne. There is some precedent of teams making their season debut covering the spread against teams that played the previous week, with FBS teams covering in this situation 63.3-percent of the time since 2005. The thinking is that the team who played the week previous would be focused on their Week 0 match, while the team making their debut seven days later in Week 1 has the advantage of watching more film and longer prep time.
With the spread at an even -3 right now, I'm leaning toward LSU. I think it's going to be a close game, and you are going to sweat it out until the last possession, no matter which side of the spread you are on. At the end of the day, I like LSU to cover the -3 in Brian Kelly's debut. Simple as that.
Pick: LSU -3
Over/Under: Two Offensive Powerhouses Against Two Untested Defenses? Light It Up.
The over/under sits at an even 50 right now. Coach Kelly hasn't named a starting quarterback, but it's looking like it will be Jayden Daniels, who transferred to Baton Rouge from Arizona State. Daniels will aim to get his career back on track as a Tiger, after a 1:1 touchdown/interception ration last year for the Sun Devils.
Both defenses in this game ranked outside the Top 50 in opponents points per game last season, allowing around 27-28 points per game on average. Interestingly, that's also about what both offenses averaged. Perfectly balanced. We are in for a back-and-forth game, which means we may see a few easy touchdown passes on Sunday night. I like the over at 50, since both of these teams will put up points.This won't be a staring contest.
Pick: Over 50
Trends: The Research You Need to Know, But Didn't Want to Look Up
- LSU is 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games on a neutral site.
- An LSU coach making his debut hasn't lost his opener since Gerry DiNardo in 1995.
- Florida State is 1-4 straight-up in its last five games against the SEC.
- LSU is 11-2 straight-up in its last 13 games in September.
- The Over has hit in 11 of the last 13 of LSU's games in Week 1.
Prop Bet: Kayshon Boutte Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-115)
How do you not like this play on opening night? Kayshon Boutte projects as one of the top wide receivers in the nation this year. His 2021 sophomore campaign was cut short due to injury after just six games, but in those handful of games he caught NINE touchdown passes. There is no way Brain Kelly isn't drawing up plays to get his star receiver involved early and often. I might even be on Boutte to score two touchdowns at +500, which feels like free money.
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