It would be difficult for any team to make the College Football Playoff with two losses.
It would be even more difficult for a team from the Big Ten (and, um, not from the SEC) to reach the College Football Playoff with two losses.
However, Jay Boice, Andrew Flowers and Reuben Fischer-Baum of Five Thirty-Eight have released their latest projection to handicap the field, and it leaves the door open for the Michigan Wolverines to crash the party. To be fair, the model gives Jim Harbaugh’s team only a 13% chance to win the Big Ten and a 7% chance to reach the top four by season’s end, but those numbers are anything but astronomical, and they add up to a 1% chance of a national title for Michigan in 2015.
Michigan is the only team in this week’s model to receive at least 1% likelihood of a national championship with two losses, and only Mississippi State (3%) and UCLA (3%) have more than 1% chance to even reach the four-team playoff field. What does this all mean? Not a lot, but in the same breath, the Wolverines do have an opportunity to make a mark on the committee with the season finale against Ohio State with a potential berth in the Big Ten Championship game to boot.
It is exceedingly unlikely that a realistic conversation surrounding Michigan and a top-four seed will take place in late November, but a chance remains, and that is all the “Michigan Men” are asking for at this stage.