We’re entering Week 5 of the season which means we are almost fully into the SEC conference schedule. A decent 4-5 performance last week brings my SEC picks record to 20-24 on the season. The dream of a .500 record is still alive so we’ll try to get closer this week.
As always, lines come courtesy of VegasInsider.com and all of the Top 25 picks are here.
Louisiana Tech at #5 Auburn (-33)
Auburn finally had their streak of 13 straight covers broken last Thursday night. The Tigers’ offense did not look great against Kansas State, so I think they’ll want to quiet the critics and have a big offensive game against Louisiana Tech.
Missouri (+6) at #13 South Carolina
I have not felt worse about a pick all year. I have no clue what to think of these two teams. South Carolina’s defense is horrible. That’s the one thing I do know. So, I’m taking Mizzou with the points just because I think Maty Mauk and the Tigers’ offense will be able to score enough to keep this close.
Vanderbilt at Kentucky (-17)
If you want to reach a low point in life, sweat out a Kentucky/Vandy game because you put money on it. Do not bet money on this football game. Do anything else. For the purposes of this column, I’ll lay the points with Kentucky because Vanderbilt is that bad and unlike South Carolina last week, Kentucky actually cares about winning this game. But seriously, do not associate yourself with this football game in any way.
Arkansas at #6 Texas A&M (-8.5)/OVER 70
Sharp money has moved this line an entire touchdown from -15.5 at opening. I do think Arkansas can keep this one fairly close, but I think this line has moved too far. Aggies by 10 in a high-scoring affair. I’ll take the over as well.
Tennessee at #12 Georgia (-17)/OVER 55.5
I like what Butch Jones is doing at Tennessee. I feel like I have to preface everything I say about the Vols with that. Unfortunately, they will not be able to slow down the Georgia running game and I don’t think they stand a chance on the road. I do think this is a higher scoring affair than the oddsmakers do, so I’ll take the over as well.
Memphis at #10 Ole Miss (-19.5)
Memphis is a very solid football team that went on the road and gave UCLA a scare. I think Ole Miss is A LOT better than UCLA though, particularly on defense. This line’s dropped five points since opening and I like Dr. Bo and the Rebels at under three touchdowns.
New Mexico State (+43) at #17 LSU/UNDER 56
This line has dropped from 47 to 43 and still feels like it’s too much. LSU will win, and win with ease, but New Mexico State is a reasonably competent football team and LSU’s QB situation is, to be nice, not great. I’m going to also take the under because I have little faith in the Tigers’ offense.