NFL free agency is mere weeks away, with teams set to try to maintain some of their star players and looking to buttress their roster once the new league year begins on March 13.
There are always players with tantalizing promise backed by elite production who find their way to free agency every year. However, some of those players wind up going bust in new situations after fetching big-money contracts on the open-market.
This offseason will be no different, and these five high-risk, high-reward free agents should carry a warning label.
RB - Derrick Henry
This is an unprecedented crop of free-agent running backs, but Henry is a bit of a cautionary tale.
Even at a time when running backs have never been valued less, and concerns over durability at the position have never been greater, Henry should command a robust market and one of the highest-paying contracts handed out to backs this offseason. And, for good reason, Henry is one of the more punishing backs in the league, averaging 1,187 yards and just over 11 touchdowns per season through his first eight years. Even this past season, Henry forced 57 missed tackles while averaging 3.32 yards after contact per carry, according to Pro Football Focus. However, all the punishment dealt from 2,030 career carries has to be a concern.
QB - Baker Mayfield
Baker Mayfield couldn't possibly hit free agency at a better time, even if the Buccaneers appear primed to keep him from reaching the open market.
Mayfield is coming off the most prolific season of his career, passing for a personal best 4,044 yards with 28 touchdowns to only 10 interceptions in his first season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales' offense. However, Canales is now the head coach of the Carolina Panthers, All-Pro wide receiver Mike Evans is poised to be the most coveted player at the position, and teams — Tampa included must decide whether the 2023 version of Mayfield is the one to expect moving forward.
It's worth remembering that before last season, Mayfield was a 2022 vagabond and had previously averaged 20.4 touchdowns to 12.8 interceptions per season. If 2023 was a career turning point for Mayfield, some team has a franchise quarterback of the future, at age 28. But, if last season was an outlier, teams should worry about overpaying for Mayfield.
S - Geno Stone
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The Baltimore Ravens were one of the most disruptive defenses in the league in 2023, and safety Geno Stone was a big reason why.
Stone was a bit of a black hole in coverage in 2023. Pro Football Focus points out the 24-year-old held opposing quarterbacks to a paltry 53.1 passer rating when targeting him en route to intercepting seven passes while receivers only mustered 7.5 yards per reception against him. Still, Stone struggles mightily up near the line of scrimmage, and as dominant as he is over the top in coverage has looked vulnerable at times in the slot. Perhaps Stone's best fit is with the Ravens, but Baltimore only has $16.4 million in cap space and some pretty expensive mouths to feed in coming weeks.
OT - Trent Brown
Brown might be the ultimate boom-or-bust offensive tackle.
When healthy, Brown is one of the top-10 most dominant offensive tackles in the sport. In 2023, Brown was the ultimate backstop, allowing just three sacks in 346 pass-protection snaps. However, there's a reason Brown has had clauses rewarding him for weighing in for training camp under 385 pounds and maintaining his weight. Just two seasons ago, Brown allowed eight sacks and allowed double-digit quarterback hurries three times in his career. Brown certainly has upside, but not without risks.
OT - Mekhi Becton
Becton's first-round pedigree will have teams lining up believing they can maximize his potential.
However, while Becton played better and was on the field consistently in 2023, injuries have plagued the 24-year-old's career. Perhaps Becton has more to offer than his 12-sack allowed 2023 season, but signing him carries the risk of both further injury and significant downside based on his struggles in pass-protection.
