As if Monday nights couldn't get better now that football season is upon us, Week 2 gives us a double-header.
That's double the betting, and hopefully not a double disappointment. We'll encourage the first, and we'll help you avoid the second.
Titans at Bills (-10)
The Bills look like the real deal. The preseason Super Bowl favorites made short work of the defending champion Rams in the opener, while the Titans squandered a 13-0 halftime lead and lost to the Giants. These two teams couldn't have had a more different Week 1, so lock on the Bills, right? The greatest virtue of Week 2 is picking up on the overreactions that Week 1 results bring.
This is a perfect buy-low situation on the Titans, who put up 76 points in their last two games vs Buffalo. The line opened at -7, but heavy action on the Bills moved it to -10 as of the time of writing this. Historically, teams coming off a Week 1 loss are 61.5-percent against the spread in the last 17 seasons, according to Action Network. I don't think an upset is forthcoming, but I like Mike Vrabel to have his squad amped up enough to keep it close.
Bet: Titans +10
If the spread in this game scares you, maybe consider the total. Buffalo can score. Going back to last season's playoffs, the Bills have scored a touchdown on 16 of their last 26 possessions. And if the above system is correct, then the Titans will have to keep up with the Bills on the scoreboard. Which one would think would push this total over its set line.
Bet: Over 47.5
Vikings at Eagles (-2.5)
Jalen Hurts did it all against the Lions in Week 1, rushing for 90 yards and a TD, while tossing 243 yard through the air. Meanwhile, the Vikings are fresh off a surprising thrashing of NFC powerhouse, the Green Bay Packers, to open their 2022 season. Needless to say, both of these offenses looked good last week. I like Jalen Hurt's downfield options of AJ Brown and Devonta Smith a little more than Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.
The real question after Week 1 is simple: is this Vikings team for real? I'll need more than one week to convince me which makes this a perfect time to sell high on Minnesota. I wish I had a nifty little system to point to like the Bills-Titans game, but this is more of a gut feeling. With the spread being under the key number of three, I'll lay the points on the home team to get it done at The Linc.
Bet: Eagles -2.5
Last week, Kirk Cousins and Jalen Hurts aired it out 32 times apiece. Cousins completed 23 of those 32 for 277 and 2 touchdowns, and Hurts for 18 for 243 yards. Most of those completion numbers went to two receivers: Justin Jefferson had 184 yards and two touchdowns while AJ Brown had 185 yards. I wanted to hammer this total, but a few things are giving me pause.
One is that neither QB spreads the field that much. The Eagles had four rushing touchdowns, a feat I don't think they'll replicate against the Viking's defense, and the biggest betters are already hammering the over. Seventy-four-percent of the bets and 87-percent of the money are rolling in on the over as of the time of writing this. I've preached contrarian betting as a viable strategy, and it has already served me well this season. I'm not going to go against my principles now.
Jalen Hurts Under 50.5 rushing yards (-110): Only eight running backs last week ran the ball more than Jalen Hurts. He ran 17 times for 90 yards and a touchdown. Item one at the Viking's facility this week had to be figuring out a way to contain him to the pocket. Minnesota defensive coordinator Ed Donatell even mentioned using a spy as a means to limit Hurts running chances.
Dalvin Cook Over 70.5 rushing yards (-115): The Eagles gave up 172 rushing yards and three touchdowns to the Lions last week. Dalvin Cook saw 20 touches for 90 yards. Look for a big day from the Vikings running back.
Stefon Diggs Over 72.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Diggs put up 122 yards and was targeted 9 times against the Rams. He's Josh Allen's favorite receiver and one of the best in the game
Ryan Tannehill Over 0.5 interceptions (-145): If the narrative is that the Titans are going to lose, then here is a stat. In six Titan losses last season (including playoffs), Tannehill tossed an INT in five of them. Now he sees a Bills defense that picked off Matthew Stafford three times a week ago.
Stefon Diggs Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+100): I tend to steer clear of this kind of prop, but the Bills score touchdowns, Josh Allen throws them, and his favorite receiver is Diggs. At plus money odds, this is unavoidable.
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