Usually when you think of teams with the best odds to win out, you immediately look at the bottom of the Strength of Schedule rankings and try to pick the most skilled team out of those guys. For most years, that has been Boise State, as the Broncos have made a living on undefeated and one-loss seasons.
After Week 5, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) says the team with the best chance at winning out isn’t a team from a Group of 5 conference, but instead a contender for the College Football Playoff: Louisville.
Louisville already has a big win over Florida State and close loss to Clemson behind them, so their ACC schedule going forward is relatively easy. However, they do have one big test left on their schedule: an away game in November against No. 6 Houston.
That is a lot of confidence to put in Louisville, and it would certainly throw a wrench into the College Football Playoff if they were able to go 11-1 on the season.
Other teams that could mess up the College Football Playoff selection are Western Michigan, who maintains the best chance at going undefeated for the season, and Houston. If Houston is able to go undefeated and beat Louisville later in the season, then you would think that they would have to be a lock for the Playoffs with wins over Louisville and Oklahoma.