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Data guru Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight.com has come out with his forecast of teams most likely to reach the Super Bowl, and while the No. 1 team isn’t surprising, the No. 2 and 3 teams are.

Silver says the New England Patriots have a 35% chance of reaching the big game, and the team with the second best chance is — the Kansas City Chiefs, with 16%. Both of those are in the same conference, and only one can advance, so it stands to reason the Dallas Cowboys should be big favorites in the NFC, right?

Wrong.

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Silver’s projections say the Atlanta Falcons have the third best chance, and the Cowboys, fourth. Those four teams — New England, Kansas City, Atlanta and the Cowboys — are all heavily favored to reach their conference championships.

That means, based on these early projections, New England and Atlanta has the best shot of reaching the Super Bowl, though Atlanta’s edge over Dallas is razor thin.

Three teams — Miami, Houston and Detroit — have less than a one percent chance of making the Super Bowl.

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