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With a third of the 2016 NFL season in the books, the number of true Super Bowl contenders has dwindled down to a little more than a than a handful of teams, says statistics authority Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com.

Silver recently compiled a list of nine teams with a legitimate chance at bringing home the Lombardi Trophy and his top five hold more than a few surprises.

1, Minnesota VikingsĀ 

Silver lists the Vikings as having the league’s best odds right now with a 16 percent chance to win the title — a popular pick, to be sure. NFL.com, CBS Sports, Fox Sports and a whole host of others all have Minnesota at the top of their current power rankings.

2. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are in the number two spot with a 13 percent chance to win the Super Bowl, which comes as a bit of z surprise. Seattle is 4-1, but hardly resemble the team that went to back to back Super Bowls a couple of years ago. Three of their four wins this season have been by a combined 14 points.

3. New England Patriots

Silver puts the Patriots in third place with a 10 percent chance to win it all. The only real surprise here as that Silver doesn’t have the Pats in one of the top two spots, as is the case in the majority of the power rankings out there right now.

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4. Denver Broncos

The 4th spot on the list belongs to the Broncos with a 9 percent chance, which could also be seen as a surprise. Denver is 4-2 and the offense still hasn’t found its footing. They rank 23rd in the league in total offense, 2oth in passing offense, and 16th in rushing offense.

5. Kansas City Chiefs

Silver has the Chiefs as the team with the 5th best chance to be world champions at 8 percent — yet another surprise. With a record of 3-2 and third place in the AFC West, they’ve haven’t impressed in the slightest. Kansas City’s lost to the Chargers, Jets and Raiders, who have a combined win-loss record of 7-11.

You can see the full list here.

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