ESPN Analytics pro and writer Sharon Katz has a top 10 list, much like everyone is writing these days. However, her list is quite different as it predicts who will have the biggest point differential throughout the season based on ESPN's Football Power Index and the opponents these teams will face.
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Here is her one disclaimer on the rankings though:
It's important to note that this is not a playoff predictor or measure of team strength (that's what FPI is for). The level of competition faced and possibility for multiple losses must be weighed when predicting the playoff field. Further, if a team is favored by 10 points, it does not mean it will win the game every time; a 10-point margin equates to roughly a 75 percent chance to win and represents an average of a wide range of possible outcomes.
With that in mind, here is the top ten list and what their season averages of predicted point differential will be.
1. Oklahoma - Predicted point differential: 20.4
2. Clemson - PPD: 20.3
3. Florida State - PPD: 18.6
4. Tennessee - PPD: 18.3
5. LSU - PPD: 18.0
6. Michigan - PPD: 17.3
7. Boise State - PPD: 15.1
8. Oklahoma State - PPD: 15.0
9. Georgia - PPD: 13.7
10. Alabama - PPD: 13.3
Clemson and Florida State being near the top shouldn't surprise anyone as they play in a relatively weak ACC conference and the only tough game is probably going to be the one they play against each other in the middle of the season. Alabama has a tough road in the SEC West, but will be able to beat up on teams like Western Kentucky, Kentucky, Kent State and Chattanooga to raise their PPD number.
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Tennessee should have a relatively easy time getting points with the return of running backs like Alvin Kamara and Jalen Hurd while also getting a smarter and more efficient season out of quarterback Josh Dobbs. It also helps that the SEC East is going to be one big struggle bus outside of Tennessee.
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Oklahoma must be so high on this list because of dates with Louisiana-Monroe, Kansas State, Kansas and Iowa State that should be blowouts. They have some tough games the rest of the way against in-state rival Oklahoma State and West Virginia as well as the Ohio State Buckeyes.
[h/t SEC Country]
