Renowned statistician Nate Silver is calling one team an enormous favorite in the upcoming World Series matchup between the Chicago Cubs and the Cleveland Indians.
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Silver's website fivethirtyeight.com, which uses statistical analysis to forecast the outcome of elections, sporting events and almost anything you could wager your hard-earned money on, says the Cubs have a clear advantage over the American League champion Indians.
The website employs a model whose rating system takes into account several different aspects of a team's performance during the 2016 season—-margin of victory, home-field advantage, strength of schedule, and prior performance—-then reportedly plugs those numbers into thousands of World Series simulations to come up with odds.
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And according to those findings, the Cubs have a 63% chance to win their first Series since 1908, while the Indians have a 37% chance. Silver's model also breaks the World Series down game by game, and only has Cleveland favored in Game 1 (Indians 55%, Cubs 45%).
The rest of the Series, according to Silver's model, looks like this:
Game 2: Cubs 56%, Indians 44%
Game 3: Cubs 65%, Indians 35%
Game 4: Cubs 62%, Indians 38%
Game 5: Cubs 62%, Indians 38%
Game 6: Cubs 53%, Indians 47%
Game 7: Cubs 53%, Indians 47%
