It feels like the world of college football is changing faster than ever. We haven't even experienced the first year of a 12-team format, and there's already buzz of expansion to 14. In addition to the expansion itself, there are some controversial elements to the proposed format.
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The 14-team model would start in 2026, after two seasons of the 12-team playoff. The format is being referred to as "3-3-2-2-1" as a reference to how the 11 automatic qualifiers would be determined; three each from the Big Ten and SEC, two each from the ACC and Big 12, and one highly-ranked Group of Five champion. The remaining spots would be filled by the three next-highest ranked teams that do not fall into any of the automatic qualification categories.
Ross Dellenger with Yahoo! Sports reported that updated format proposal via X.
Change is coming to the College Football Playoff: More automatic qualifiers.
On Wednesday, CFP leaders explored a variety of new models that grant multiple AQs (10-12 total) to the four power conferences in a 14-team format with two byes.
Buckle up.https://t.co/ESdyLqiaHJ
— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) February 22, 2024
This potential format reflects the reality that the Big Ten and SEC are about to be even further beyond the pack than they already are, with the additions of schools like Oregon, USC, Washington, UCLA, Texas and Oklahoma.
It's been noted that this plan is similar to what we see in European soccer, in terms of qualifying for the Champions League. The best leagues receive more bids than the others, and that competition is often the most entertaining one in the whole sport. It's also been criticized as unfair at times, and this imbalance is not something we'd want to see in college football.
However, it's worth questioning how much it really matters, even if it is slightly unfair. It's very hard to envision a 14-team playoff that wouldn't involve at least three teams from each of those conferences, even if just the champion received an automatic bid, as will be the case in the 12-team format. Frankly, even with three automatic spots for each "power-two" conference, it's very possible that they'll still dominate the three at large spots in many seasons.
It also seems that the structure of the tournament would be "NFL-style," with just two total byes available. This could really push teams at the top to excel, but might cause the next tier of teams to get a bit complacent at times, as compared to the 12-team format which has teams stratified into three clear, even groups; four teams with byes, four hosting first round games, and four going on the road.
Change is inevitable in college football, but it seems just a bit rash to start altering a format we haven't even seen yet. Of course, profitability is king, and more teams and more games means more money, so the decision-makers may or may not be concerned with whether or not the new change makes the competition a better or fairer one. Still, fans will be left with the consequences, so it's worth pondering if this potential change really is a positive one.
