The spread or 'point spread' is oftentimes used in sports betting as a way to level the playing field between two different teams, where one is defined as the 'underdog' and the other known as the 'favorite.'
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Since one of the teams has a greater chance of winning, the point spread allows the underdog to have sort of a head start, by making sure that the 'favorite' wins by a certain margin of points to 'cover the spread.'
Once the favorite/underdog teams are identified, the bookmakers create a number spread they think is fair to give as an advantage, which ensures a more balanced and competitive betting environment. By having a comprehension of the spread, a bettor is then able to make more informed decisions.
How to Read Point Spreads?
Example of a Point Spread Bet (-7.5, +7.5)
If the point spread is 7.5, then this is how it will look:
- Favorite (team expected to win) indicated by a negative number (e.g. -7.5).
- Underdog: (team expected to lose) indicated by a positive number (e.g. +7.5).
When viewing this, the favorite (-7.5) must win by at least 8 points for a bet on them to win, if so, this means they will 'cover the spread.' On the other hand, the underdog (+7.5) can either win the game, or if they lose, they still have a cushion, so as long as they lose by less than 7.5 points, a bet on them wins.
How Does a Point Spread Work?
Concept of Even Matchups:
What happens if both teams have the same odds? A 'pick em' means that both teams have even odds to win the game, so there is no favorite or underdog. In this case, the spread is set at 0 and all the bettor has to do is pick the winner of the game.
Calculating Winnings Based on the Spread:
When betting on the spread, your potential winnings are generally calculated based on the odds assigned to each bet, which is often the standard (-110, +100). (-110 odds) means you need to bet $110 to win $100.
Example Calculations for a Covering Bet:
- Winning Calculation: If the bettor successfully chooses the right team, for example Team A covered the spread (won by more than 7.5 points), then the bettor wins $100. So the total payout will be the bet amount ($110) + the winnings ($100) = $210.
- Losing Calculation: If the bettor is unsuccessful and chooses the wrong team, then they lose the amount that they risked (the betting amount) = -$110
Half-Point Point Spreads Explained:
The reason why half-point spreads (e.g. -7.5; +7.5) are utilized more often than not, is because they eliminate the possibility of a tie or push, so there is always a clear winner and loser.
Comparing Spread Betting to Other Types of Betting
Even though spread betting is one of the most popular forms of sports wagering, it's not the only one. The other well-known kinds of betting include moneyline and over/under(totals) bets.
Spread Betting vs. Moneyline Betting
While spread betting includes betting on the margin of victory in a game, Moneyline betting only entails choosing the outright winner, with the odds depending on the likelihood of each team's chances of winning. In spread betting, the underdog can lose, yet still cover the spread, which makes Moneyline a more straightforward way to bet.
Spread Betting vs. Over/Under Betting
When looking at spread betting, a bookmaker will set a margin of victory, where the bettor has to decide if the favorite team will win by more than the spread, and in correlation, if the underdog will lose by less than the spread (or win the game). On the other hand, when the bookmaker sets the line on an over/under bet, it takes into account the combined point total scored by both teams, where the bettor has to guess if it will be over or under the decided line.
Advantages and Disadvantages of Spread Betting
There are both positives and negatives to spread betting. That is to say, it has advantages, such as it allows for an even playing field between both teams, since the spread amount that the favorites must win by equalizes the odds. Next, unlike Moneyline betting, it includes -110 odds on both sides, which is preferred by some bettors. Then when looking at the disadvantages, some may view spread betting as complex, since you have to take into account not only who you think will win the game but also the margin of victory.
Factors Influencing the Spread
There are multiple factors that bookmakers consider when deciding what to set a points spread line at. The main goal is to balance the betting action on both sides of a game, by analyzing the following factors: Team Performance & Statistics, Player Injuries & Lineup Changes, and Public Betting Trends & Market Adjustments.
Team Performance and Statistics
When looking at a team's recent games, the bookmakers will take into account both winning streaks and losing streaks. Next, season records and in particular home/away splits are important. Lastly, statistics, such as points scored/allowed will impact the spread.
Player Injuries and Lineup Changes
Key player injuries affect the spread, especially if a team is without their star, as this will significantly shift the outcome and in correlation the predictive points differential. Another way a team's depth can be impacted is if a player is suspended or decides not to play due to rest (load management).
Public Betting Trends and Market Adjustments
Anytime a large amount of money is placed on one team, the bookmakers are likely to adjust the spread to balance the heavy action on one side. On this same note, popular teams and media coverage can sway the public opinions and influence the betting lines.
Strategies for Betting with the Spread
Identifying Value in Spread Bets
Some strategies that can lead to finding value in spread bets include analyzing a team's performance, such as recent form, and looking for statistical matchups. Next, one will want to observe the injury reports, as this will correlate with affecting the team's depth. Lastly, it is important to pay attention to the public perception, as this many times inflates the spread. With this in mind, if one bets against the public, this can provide value. To note, looking at which side the sharp bettors are placing their bets is beneficial to giving yourself the best chance to win.
Utilizing Advanced Statistics in Spread Betting
Using metrics such as offensive and defensive efficiency to evaluate team performance many times offers a more accurate perspective than traditional stats. One may also want to consider, pace of play, such as in sports like basketball, as more possessions leads to higher scoring and this will in correlation also affect the spread.
Analyzing Matchups and Situational Factors
Looking at historical trends, such as head-to-head matchups can lead to better predictions for potential outcomes. As some teams may perform better against certain opponents. Not to mention, other factors include home-field advantage and how many days of rest a team is playing on, as teams playing on back-to-backs have a disadvantage.
Common Mistakes to Avoid with Spread Betting
Overreacting to Recent Performance and Popular Teams
Betting blindly on favorites by following public bias makes one's chances of winning go down, as the hype surrounding some teams can lead to inflated spreads. A way to avoid this is by analyzing the favorite team's performances against similar opponents and looking at how the underdog team is able to keep games close.
Ignoring Line Movements and Sharp Money
It's important to keep in mind that lines change due to public betting trends, and this is not always a result of accurate information. So considering this, when a spread shifts, one will want to investigate if the movement is due to public betting or sharp money bets, as understanding the reason behind the line movements is critical.
Misunderstanding Home Field Advantage
When looking at how a team performs at home compared to on the road, sometimes bettors neglect the important factors, since home teams have many advantages, such as fan support and familiar surroundings. On the other hand, away teams have to deal with travel fatigue and hostile crowds. So when analyzing overall season performances, one must also bear in mind the home-field advantage and how it influences the point spread.
Related: What Is A Moneyline Bet? Beginner Sports Bettor's Guide
