With one week left in the regular season, the NFL playoff picture is mostly filled in. The chaos now lives in the seeding.
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Twelve teams have already clinched playoff spots. What they have not clinched is where they will land. That will be decided over the next few days, with several races still tangled up and a handful of games acting as direct tiebreakers.
Here is how it all shakes out heading into Week 18:
NFC
No. 1 seed: This comes down to the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers. The winner of their Saturday night matchup in San Francisco takes the top seed. If the game somehow ends in a tie, Seattle gets the No. 1 seed.
No. 2 seed: The Chicago Bears or the Philadelphia Eagles. If Chicago wins or Philadelphia loses, the Bears take the No. two spot. If the Bears lose and the Eagles win, Philadelphia moves up.
No. 3 seed: Whichever team does not get the No. 2 seed between the Eagles and Bears lands here. Philadelphia is resting starters, effectively signaling it is preparing to enter the postseason as the No. three seed.
No. 4 seed: The Carolina Panthers or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If Carolina beats or ties Tampa Bay on Saturday, the Panthers clinch the No. 4 seed. If Carolina loses but the Atlanta Falcons win Sunday, the Panthers still take it. If Tampa Bay wins and Atlanta loses or ties, the Buccaneers move into the fourth spot.
No. 5 seed: This one involves the Seahawks, 49ers and Los Angeles Rams. If Seattle loses Saturday, the Seahawks are the No. five seed. If San Francisco loses Saturday and the Rams lose Sunday, the 49ers are No. 5. If the 49ers lose and the Rams win, Los Angeles grabs the spot.
No. 6 seed: The Rams or the 49ers. If the Rams lose or the 49ers win, the Rams are No. 6. If the 49ers lose and the Rams win, San Francisco becomes the No. 6 seed.
No. 7 seed: This one is settled. The Green Bay Packers are locked into the No. 7 seed regardless of what happens in Week 18.
AFC
The AFC is where things get truly messy.
No. 1 seed: The Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, or Jacksonville Jaguars. If Denver wins, or if both New England and Jacksonville lose, the Broncos get the top seed. If New England wins and Denver loses, the Patriots take No. 1. If Jacksonville wins while both Denver and New England lose, the Jaguars rise to the top.
No. 2 seed: Still those same three teams. If New England and Denver both win, the Patriots are No. 2. If New England and Jacksonville both lose, the Patriots are No. 2. If Denver wins and Jacksonville loses, New England gets No. 2 regardless of its own result.
If Denver loses and both New England and Jacksonville win, the Broncos are No. 2. If Jacksonville wins, Denver loses and New England wins, the Jaguars are No. 2. If Jacksonville wins, Denver wins and New England loses, the Jaguars are No. 2.
No. 3 seed: Now add the Houston Texans to the mix. If Jacksonville, Denver and New England all win, the Jaguars are No. 3. If Jacksonville ties, the Jaguars are No. 3. If Jacksonville and Houston both lose, Jacksonville stays No. 3. If Denver and New England win and Houston loses, Jacksonville is No. 3 regardless of its own game.
If Denver loses and both New England and Jacksonville win, Denver lands at No. 3. If New England loses and Jacksonville wins, the Patriots are No. 3. If Houston wins and Jacksonville loses, the Texans move into the third seed.
No. 4 seed: This one is simple. If the Pittsburgh Steelers beat or tie the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night, Pittsburgh is No. 4. If Baltimore wins, the Ravens take the spot.
No. 5 seed: This is where it turns into a spreadsheet. The Texans, Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers, or Buffalo Bills can land here. If Houston and Jacksonville both win, Houston is No. 5. If Houston, the Chargers and the Bills all lose, Houston is still No. 5. If Jacksonville wins and both the Chargers and Bills lose, Houston gets the spot regardless of its own result. If Jacksonville loses, Houston wins and Buffalo loses, Houston is No. 5.
The Chargers can get there by winning while Houston loses, or by winning while Jacksonville loses depending on strength of victory. Buffalo gets the No. 5 seed if it wins, the Chargers lose, and either Houston or Jacksonville loses.
No. 6 seed: Also Houston, Jacksonville, the Chargers or the Bills. If the Chargers, Texans and Jaguars all win, the Chargers are No. 6. If the Chargers and Bills both lose, the Chargers are No. 6. If Houston wins and Buffalo loses, the Chargers are No. six regardless of their own result.
If Jacksonville and the Chargers both lose while Houston and Buffalo win, the Jaguars are No. 6. If Houston loses and either Buffalo loses with a Chargers win or Buffalo wins with a Chargers loss, Houston becomes No. 6. If Buffalo wins, the Chargers lose and Houston and Jacksonville both win, the Bills take No. 6.
No. 7 seed: The final spot could go to any of the same four teams. If Buffalo loses, the Bills are No. 7. If the Chargers, Texans and Jaguars all win, Buffalo is No. 7 regardless. If Jacksonville loses and Houston, the Chargers and Buffalo all win, Jacksonville could fall to No. 7 based on tiebreakers. If Houston loses and both the Chargers and Bills win, Houston is No. 7. If the Chargers lose and Buffalo wins, the Chargers are No. seven.
In other words, buckle up. The brackets are coming together, but the order is very much still up for grabs.
