The hype for the 2016 Michigan Wolverines has been cooking for some time, and Jim Harbaugh is basking in the national attention. As the season approaches, many will attempt to handicap the Big Ten race, and Ed Feng of The Power Rank uses an analytical approach to projections.
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Feng provides a win projection for each and every team in the conference (and the country) and he concludes that the Wolverines are the favorite to claim the Big Ten title with a 9.4-win baseline. With that, the system pegs Michigan as the nation's 9th-best team, with Ohio State coming in at number 11 overall and number two in the Big Ten with an 8.4-win projection.
With all of that out of the way, though, Feng and his system actually projects an Ohio State victory in the 2016 version of "The Game". He explains here:
For example, Michigan has a rating a half point better than Ohio State in this year's preseason rankings. This gives Michigan a slight edge at a neutral site. However, Michigan travels to Ohio State this year. The addition of 3 points for home field implies that Ohio State should win by 2.5 points.
As with many statistical projections, this system is conservative for the best of the best (having the No. 11 team with 8.4 wins, for example) and aggressive for the bottom of the country. However, it is clear that Michigan and Ohio State land well ahead of the rest of the conference, as Wisconsin, Nebraska and Michigan State slot (in that order) from three to five in the Big Ten.
The annual battle between Michigan and Ohio State should be fun as always, but homefield advantage could be crucial and this year the game is in Columbus. Now, go back to debating which team is better suited to win a game that is three-plus months away.
