Bovada released 23 over/under bets on win totals for college football earlier this week, and that leaves us pondering one thing: which bets are potentially the best values, and which ones are the worst?
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A couple of things to consider here: the win totals here are only for the regular season, which puts everyone on an even playing field of 12 games. (Unless you're and Hawaii playing 13)
Other important things: pushing on a number will usually get you most of your money back, so that is something to consider when looking at a team that has to clear a whole number instead of .5-number. Also, the actual value of the bet matters here. Sure, Alabama seems like an easy pick to clear 9.5 wins, but at a -160 bet, can it be considered a top value? It's tough to make that decision.
Best
Stanford: Over 8 (-130)
Stanford does have a tough schedule this upcoming season, but with Heisman runner-up Christian McCaffrey on their team, it's hard to see them losing less than eight games.
This may be at -130, but the value comes in at the win total being set at eight instead of 8.5. Even if you push at with eight wins, you will get most of your money back, and I think there is a good chance that Stanford still wins nine games.
Michigan State: Over 8 (-105)
The Spartans are in pretty much the same predicament as Stanford here, as they just have to get to eight wins. Their schedule isn't too difficult, and they get both Michigan and Ohio State at home. If they can get one of those, then there is a great chance that they get to nine wins, which makes -105 here a great value.
TCU: Over 8.5 (-110)
TCU may have lost Trevone Boykin and Josh Doctson, but they still have a ton of talent and they have a very favorable schedule. Their most difficult game will be Oklahoma, but the Horned Frogs get the advantage of that game being at home.
After that, their most difficult games is... Arkansas at home? Oklahoma State at home? They could really be a sleeper in 2016, and over 8.5 seems like a good bet to take, especially at -110.
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Worst:
Louisville: Either O/U 9 (-115)
Louisville's schedule almost fits for them to win exactly nine games, so neither the over or the under here really pay off. I think you go go over here and predict them to win 10 games, but at only -115, that is a tough bet to take.
Baylor: Under 9 (-220)
Even with all the problems going on at Baylor this offseason, they still have an easy schedule and they should still have a healthy Seth Russell at quarterback. It is tough to predict if any more players will leave the program, but taking this bet at -220 is a large task for a win total over/under. I would avoid betting on Baylor altogether.
Auburn: Over 7 (-115)
Have you seen Auburn's schedule? They play Clemson, Texas A&M, and LSU all within the first month. Yes, all of those games are at home, but games vs. Arkansas, at Ole Miss, at Georgia, and at Alabama loom later in the year. Is Auburn good enough to take at least three of these games and win the rest of their schedule? Possible. Is -115 a good enough value to take that bet? Nope.
