The Green Bay Packers believe they have the quarterback to lead them to multiple Super Bowls, and they're expected to pay Jordan Love accordingly.
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Amid Jordan Love's 2023 breakout, in his third NFL season and first as the Packers' starter, expectations were raised in TitleTown.
Love improved dramatically, seemingly week-by-week down the stretch of the regular season. The 25-year-old finished the 2023 campaign completing 64.2 percent of his passes for 4,159 yards with 32 touchdowns to 11 interceptions while leading the Packers to the NFC Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs after ousting the Cowboys in blowout fashion.
"He's easily shown the most improvement of any quarterback in his draft class," an NFC Personnel Executive told FanBuzz, on the condition of anonymity to speak freely about a player on another team.
Now, Love is set to sign a mega-extension with the Packers that could make him among the highest paid quarterbacks in the league.
While it is Love that powers the lions-share of the optimism that the Packers are capable of taking multiple strides in years to come, Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst really has maximized the window of having his young quarterback on his original rookie deal. The Packers have surrounded love with young and dynamic playmakers at wide receiver, including Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks, along with a pair of young and consistent pass-catching tight ends in Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft.
While far from a finished product, the centerpiece of the Packers' rebuild is Love.
Projecting a Potential Jordan Love Extension
Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images
But, what will a Love contract extension look like, when the two sides are eligible to sign a new deal in May, 2024? FanBuzz spoke to several agents who represent quarterbacks and are familiar with that lucrative market, NFL executives and scouts to get a feel for how the league views Love and what a new deal might look like.
"I'm not sure he's done enough to be a $40 million per year guy," The executive explained. But, that's his market."
If the Packers and Love settle on a $40 million contract, that would mirror the deal the New York Giants signed Daniel Jones to last spring, following a strong season that finished with a playoff victory in his first season in head coach Brian Daboll's system.
But, one agent who represents several starting quarterbacks across the league says that if Love were his client, the conversations with the Packers would start at a significantly higher number. A deal that pays $50 million annually.
That would be quite a raise for Love, after playing last season on a one-year extension worth up to $22.5 million, rather than the Packers exercising his fifth-year option.
Love's one-year extension bought Gutekunst the time to further evaluate the former No. 26 overall pick in the 2020 draft and one more year to surround him with young talent.
Now, the time has come to pay up, league insiders say.
"I would go for it hard," the agent tells FanBuzz, on the condition of anonymity to speak freely about a player he doesn't represent. "They can make the case that they did the team a solid with the last deal, so, now it's his time to get paid like the top guys."
If Love succeeds in garnering a deal that pays him $50 million AAV, he would come in as the sixth-highest paid quarterback in the league, behind Joe Burrow ($55 million), Justin Herbert ($52.5 million), Lamar Jackson ($52 million), Jalen Hurts ($51 million).
The Packers are going to need to do some salary cap gymnastics this offseason, currently projected to be $2.8 million over the cap for 2024. However, back-loading much of Love's contract would be attainable given Green Bay is set to be at least $94.3 million under the cap in 2025, $153.3 million under the cap in 2026, and $279.8 million in 2027, when the salary cap is expected to balloon to $314 million.
A second agent familiar with the quarterback market believes that the benchmark for Love's contract should at minimum be the franchise tag number in coming years.
"I'd be looking at the franchise tag number and modeling any extension off of that value," the agent said. "And, I'm trying to keep the term a little shorter, because I'm not being paid on his full upside yet ... I'd listen to any extension that was at least $93 million total over the next four years."
The big decision for the Packers is going to be just how much more upside does Love have from here, ahead of his just his second season as an NFL starting quarterback, and how much they're willing to bet he'll deliver those Lombardis.
