Dan Campbell has turned the Detroit Lions from a laughing stock to the cusp of a Super Bowl appearance, but for as much as the head coach has done to turn the franchise around, it could also be coaching that ultimately led to the team's downfall on Sunday night.
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None of this is to say that Campbell should be on the hot seat. The Lions would not have made it to where they are right now without their head coach's vision and leadership. A team that hadn't won a playoff game since 1992 was two quarters away from their first-ever Super Bowl appearance, and Campbell was responsible for that turnaround, along with general manager Brad Holmes.
Unfortunately, the discourse around the Lions the day after their 31-34 loss to the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship isn't about the incredible run the team made this season, but about the coaching decisions that led to one of the biggest collapses in conference championship history.
Did Dan Campbell's Aggressive Coaching Hurt the Lions?
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Monday morning quarterbacks across the country are questioning Campbell's decision making from Sunday, particularly on fourth downs.
Campbell's first difficult decision came right before halftime while facing fourth down near the goal line just before halftime. Instead of going for it as he usually does, Campbell opted for the field goal to go up 24-7, which was widely seen as the correct move, making it a three-possession game going into the locker room.
However, the criticism quickly started to mount in the second half, when Campbell made the decision on two separate occasions to go for it on fourth down within field goal range. The Lions were unable to convert on either attempt, leading to zero points when the Lions could have secured six in an eventual three-point loss.
It's important to mention that the Lions may have not been fully willing to trust their kicker, Michael Badgley. The Lions opted to go for it instead of attempting 46- and 48-yard field goals, and throughout his career Badgley has converted just 77.1 percent of his field goal attempts fro 40-49 yards. That conversion rate drops all the way down to 38.5 percent from 50 yards or further.
The analytics debate became a hot topic following the game, but Thursday Night Football's Sam Schwartzstein might have made the clearest argument for why the Lions would have trusted their offense over their kicker in those situations.
Irony = old school mentality creates an irony of stubborn impulsiveness that ignores technology that can understand all measurable situations that include all circumstances humans can account for a given decision.
Also 92% catch rate > 77% FG make rate… https://t.co/gMrckyMfrd
— Sam Schwartzstein (@schwartzsteins) January 29, 2024
Outside of the debate about Campbell's coaching decisions from Sunday, the aggressive decisions from the Lions throughout the season have led to some iconic backfires. From the team's baffling two-point conversion decisions against the Cowboys to a disastrous fake punt on Thanksgiving against the Packers, the Lions have teetered the line between aggressive and arrogant all season.
While a lot of these decisions have backfired, it's this aggressive mentality that has completely changed the culture in Detroit. In Campbell's mind, how can the Lions preach aggressiveness and mental toughness without taking that same approach to their play calling and decision making?
Despite all of this, the bigger coaching dilemma the Lions are facing may not even be about Campbell.
The Lions Could Be Losing Their Best Assistant Coach
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The Lions offense was one of the most dangerous in the NFL this past season, with a dynamic rushing attack and a career year for quarterback Jared Goff, resulting in the fifth-best offense by DVOA in 2023.
Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has been widely credited for Detroit's success on offense, but the Lions could be losing their star assistant this offseason.
Reports are surfacing that Johnson is expected to be the next head coach of the Washington Commanders. While it would be a massive move for the 37-year-old, it would leave a huge vacancy in Detroit's coaching staff for an offense that found its identity in 2023.
Campbell will have a lot of difficult decisions to make this offseason, but his top priority will be to find a suitable replacement for Johnson. If he doesn't find the right offensive coordinator, the offense could take a huge step back in 2024, hurting their chances at making it back to the NFC Championship.
