Many are dubbing the NFL's 2025 season as "the year of parity." The playoff picture is an extended family portrait right now, in-laws and second cousins included. But who is primed to make a run this year and actually contend? Who will make no noise at all? And who is stuck in that middle ground, destined to be a bystander? Let's break down the NFC playoff picture, from the teams most likely to reach San Francisco to those who will be in Cancun early.
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Legitimate Contenders
The Rams:
You might not believe it, but the Rams are the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl, and it isn't particularly close. But there is a reason they are at +400 to win it all right now. It starts with the fact they have the best head coach in the league. Sean McVay operates on a different level from the rest of his coaching peers and has turned L.A. into a playoff contender year in and year out since he was hired. Their only two losses this season came on a last-second blocked field goal against the Eagles (a game they essentially won) and a close but fluky loss to the Niners.
Looking past McVay, talent oozes out of this team. At QB, 37-year-old Matthew Stafford is firmly in, if not leading, the MVP race with an insane 2,830 passing yards and 30 touchdowns with just two interceptions. Already teetering on a Hall of Fame career, an MVP would easily put Stafford into Canton.
Stafford is far from the only Ram looking to make it to Canton. Davante Adams, who the Rams acquired to upgrade their WR duo with Puka Nacua, has been on a tear this year, putting up 631 yards and a league-leading 12 touchdowns. Paired with Puka, who has battled minor injuries this year, only Dallas has an equal high-level wide receiver duo.
But the Rams match their offensive talent with a top-10 defense. Second-year edge rusher Jared Verse might not be the presence Aaron Donald was, but he is still a force. On top of a solid line, the Rams have one of the best secondaries in the league, evident with guys like Cobie Durant and Emmanuel Forbes.
There is no weak spot on this Rams team, nowhere to hide. They are simply the most complete team in football, led by one of the three best QBs in the league with the best head coach in football. L.A. seems like a lock for home-field advantage in the playoffs, and while the L.A. crowd isn't a factor, they won't have to play in hostile conditions like Philadelphia or Green Bay. The Rams are the most likely team to win the Super Bowl right now.
The Eagles:
It is a true toss-up to guess who is the next closest team to the Rams, but it makes sense to start with a team that has beaten them, even if it was, as said earlier, a fluke win. The Eagles' struggles are not related to talent; Philly still has arguably the most talented roster in the NFL. After their Super Bowl win last year, it was the defense that saw departures, but even this year they have given up just about 20 points per game, a Super Bowl-caliber number by most standards.
The offense is the main culprit. More specifically, first-year OC Kevin Patullo would be wise not to show his face in the city right now, especially after a horrific collapse against Dallas. It is difficult to articulate just how poor Patullo has been. The Eagles have almost an identical offense to last year, and Cam Jurgens has done a fine job stepping in for Kelce. The only real change has been the play caller.
But the blame also lies with Sirianni, the Super Bowl-winning coach, for still not taking the initiative to call plays himself. Sirianni was the Colts' offensive coordinator for several years before the Eagles hired him. If he does not take over, and the Eagles continue to slide, we could be in for another Doug Pederson-type tenure.
Still, the Eagles are all but a lock for the playoffs and have six weeks to figure things out. I would still expect Philly to give the Rams their toughest test.
The Bears:
The Chicago Bears look like legitimate players in the NFC right now. After a lackluster start to the year, the Bears are now 9-3 and lead the NFC North, the division many considered the toughest in football entering 2025.
The credit mostly belongs to Ben Johnson. The former Lions OC was the most sought-after head-coaching candidate entering the season, and his offensive schematics have put the Bears back near their offensive glory-days level with Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery.
What Johnson brought that no one saw coming was a tenacity and leadership that can motivate even the laziest player through a wall. He brought his high-school chants into Halas Hall and leaves his shirt in the hallway before the locker room. Johnson might be the most technically advanced coach in the league and the most prolific speaker, a combination that produces Super Bowl champions.
Bystanders:
The Seattle Seahawks have looked like the greatest team in NFL history when they play teams under .500. Sam Darnold deserves a movie made about him after enduring the Jets and Panthers QB cycle of despair for the first half of his career. Now he has earned the right to be a true franchise player on a solid team.
But as good as Seattle has been, they have struggled mightily against good teams. They have lost to the Rams, Niners and Bucs this year, all current playoff teams. They do not need to apologize for the games they have won, but Seattle needs to start beating good opponents for fans and critics to truly believe in them.
The Green Bay Packers have taken a major step back in the last six weeks. Early in the year, the Micah Parsons trade made the Packers look like gods as they came out as dominant as any team in football.
But now it looks like Dallas won the trade, as the Packers defense, still a top unit, cannot carry a struggling offense to legitimacy. Yes, they had a great win over the Lions on Thanksgiving, but the Lions' poor play calling was the biggest culprit. The Packers will have a real test twice more this season when they face the Bears. Whoever wins those matchups will likely take the NFC North.
The Dallas Cowboys might not make the playoffs, but they are playing as well as any team in the NFL right now. There are three reasons why Dallas has picked up their play: the team has simply developed, trades made in-season have reinvigorated the roster, and the death of Marshawn Kneeland has emotionally galvanized the locker room.
It is a combination of all three. This team had no identity early in the year on defense, but they have gotten players back from injury (Overshown, Revel) and added others through trades (Williams the biggest by far). One also cannot overlook how the tragic death of Marshawn Kneeland has unified this team on a level that transcends football. Simply put, there is not a team in the NFC that would want to see Dallas in the playoffs right now.
The Detroit Lions are on a downward trajectory, and the early-season optimism seems to be fading as quickly as it arrived. After a horrible Week 1 beatdown vs. the Packers, the Lions turned their season around and moved into the playoff picture.
But in the last seven weeks, the Lions have lost every game against current or potential playoff teams, including an embarrassing loss to the Eagles where Detroit's high-powered offense produced only seven points. That loss looks even worse now that Philly has dropped two in a row. Detroit needs to win a huge Thursday-night game against the Cowboys for fans and critics alike to buy into what Dan Campbell is selling. Otherwise, Detroit's Super Bowl window appears to have closed as quickly as it opened.
The San Francisco 49ers have the second-best coach in the league, the best running back in the league, the best tight end in the league and some of the best defenders in the league. They also have a quarterback who does not seem to be a top-tier player despite being paid a quarter of a billion dollars.
Kyle Shanahan can turn chicken "crap" into chicken dinner, evident from Garoppolo and Mac Jones, but Purdy's success came when he was on a rookie deal and the Niners could stack the roster with elite talent. That is no longer the case, and many of those weapons are gone. The Niners will always bid for the playoffs under Shanahan, but this team is not making it to the Super Bowl.
Pretenders:
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have sputtered out in the last six weeks. No team in the league has been more slammed by injuries. At the top of that list is Mike Evans, whose ailments look likely to prevent him from recording another 1,000-yard season and breaking Jerry Rice's record. Additionally, star running back Bucky Irving has missed almost the entire year.
But worse is the defense, which simply cannot complement Baker Mayfield the way it needs to for Tampa to contend. A bottom-third unit, it became abundantly clear last week in Los Angeles that the Bucs defense cannot hang with real contenders.
