One of the most prolific wide receivers in recent NFL history is about to hit the open-market for the first time, as Mike Evans' tenure with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could be coming to a close.
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Fittingly, Evans caught 8 of 12 targets for 147 yards and a touchdown in the Buccaneers' 31-23 loss to the Detroit Lions in the NFC Divisional Playoffs that could serve as his final in pewter and gold.
This past season, Evans' seventh in the NFL, he caught 68 passes for 1,051 yards and 12 touchdowns, continuing the streak that began in his rookie campaign of surpassing 1,000 yards every season of his career. Seven different quarterbacks over the seasons, from Mike Glennon and Ryan Fitzpatrick to Tom Brady and Baker Mayfield, among them, it hasn't mattered, Evans managed to eclipse the century mark every year so far.
"He's still playing at a very high level," an NFC Personnel Director told FanBuzz, on the condition of anonymity to speak freely about a player under contract with another team. "He hasn't appeared to slow down at all."
Despite being a model of consistency, and consistently among the most productive players at his position, Evans will be 30 years old and approaching his age 31 season when free agency gets underway in March.
Currently third among active receivers on the all-time receiving list, with 11,680 yards to his credit and a Super Bowl ring on his finger, Evans faces a compelling if not complicated free agency this offseason.
FanBuzz spoke to NFL executives, scouts, and agents familiar with the landscape of the wide receiver market to get a sense of what kind of market Evans can expect, and the possibility of where he might wind up, if the Buccaneers decide not to break the bank to bring him back on a new deal next season.
Deep Wide Receiver Class in Free Agency, NFL Draft
There is going to be serious star power available at wide receiver, both during the NFL Draft and in this spring's crop of free agents.
Evans will certainly be among the best available, even if he's not the same player at 30 as he was at 23.
"He is still a threat and very consistent performer," an AFC Scouting Director told FanBuzz. "But, his long speed has diminished and that must be factored in."
Soft tissue injuries have been a going concern for Evans over the past several seasons, and while that hasn't limited his production, those same issues aren't a worry when it comes to the likes of Bengals star Tee Higgins or ascending Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr.
Likewise, Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. is a generational prospect that a team picking at the top of the NFL Draft could select to build their entire receiving corps around, at a more affordable rate and AAV than Evans is going to command in free agency.
In addition to Harrison, Pro Football Focus lists six wide receivers with first-round grades and 10 in their list of top-42 prospects in this year's draft class.
That kind of depth among incoming rookies could tamper down spending in free agency for teams at wide receiver across the board.
Mike Evans' Market Value, Best Fits
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Judging by conversations with coaches and executives in buildings across the league, expect Evans to have a robust market.
In addition to teams potentially breaking the bank to drop such an accomplished veteran atop their receiving corps, or potentially sign Evans in hopes he puts them over the top when it comes to competing for Super Bowls, the Buccaneers have the ammunition to retain him.
Evans thrived down the stretch this season, seemingly building on his chemistry with Baker Mayfield as the season progressed, with the journeyman quarterback posting a whopping 119.4 passer rating when targeting Evans during the 2023 campaign. Buccaneers offensive coordinator Dave Canales certainly got the most out of Mayfield and the best of Evans last season.
If Buccaneers general manager Jason Licht intends to keep Tampa's current core together and continue building around Mayfield and Evans as the foundation over the next several years, he'll have upwards of $48.7 million in cap space. That kind of spending flexibility should be plenty to keep Evans in the gulf coast.
"Evans is going to be a little complicated because of his age, but with great production," an NFL agent told FanBuzz. "I think his deal ultimately comes in in the $20-25 million per-year range. He can probably expect a three-year contract."
The agent went on to suggest that Evans might need to settle below $25 million per season, and far below the $28 million AAV that Davante Adams agreed to with the Las Vegas Raiders last spring.
If the Bucs are unable to come to terms on a long-term contract with Evans, there's always the option of using the franchise tag to keep him in Tampa for one more season. The wide receiver tag is projected to fall somewhere in the range of $21.6 million for the 2024 season.
Meanwhile, a second agent, who represents several prominent wide receivers believes that the going rate for Evans is going to be $20 million.
The feeling on Evans among those inside the league is that he is still a top of the depth chart receiver, even on the wrong-side of 30.
"Any team in this league could use him," a long-time AFC Scout told FanBuzz. "I don't Tampa lets him walk, though. I'm sure he wants to win, so it would have to be a contending team with a top quarterback for him to wind up signing there."
If Tampa Bay decides to enter a rebuild mode, despite falling eight points shy of the NFC Championship Game, or just opts to get younger and more affordable at wide receiver, here's a look at Evans' best fits in free agency.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have a five-alarm fire at wide receiver. Despite a lengthy postseason run, Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City's offense has been hampered by inconsistent play and dropped passes out of their young receivers throughout the 2023 season. Boasting $26 million in cap space entering the 2024 offseason, it is unfathomable that general manager Brett Veach would enter next season with the same receiving corps around Mahomes that dropped 44 passes in 2023, or 2.6 per game, which is the most in the league. Evans would immediately elevate the Chiefs' offense, and Mahomes' ceiling, while forming half of a dangerous duo with tight end Travis Kelce over the middle of the field.
Houston Texans
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Houston will enter the 2024 season as a legitimate Super Bowl favorite, thanks in large part to electrifying quarterback C.J. Stroud being on a rookie contract, a burgeoning and talented defense, and one of the top coaches in the NFL. While Tank Dell and Nico Collins are a dynamic and young pair of weapons at wide receiver, general manager Nick Caserio would be wise to surround Stroud with as much elite playmaking talent as possible, to prop the Texans' Super Bowl window open for the life of his young quarterback's contract. Caserio and the Texans have $74.8 million in cap space, and are suddenly a desirable destination for veterans chasing Super Bowls. Evans would be a strong veteran leadership voice in the Texans' receiving room, be a field-stretcher in his own right, and create opportunities for Houston's young stars at the position because of the attention he commands from opposing secondaries.
Chicago Bears
Whichever direction the Bears decide to go in at the top of the NFL Draft, boasting the No. 1 and No. 9 overall selections, expect Evans to be on general manager Ryan Poles' radar. If the Bears forge ahead with Justin Fields as the organization's quarterback of the future and select Harrison with the No. 1 overall pick, Evans still makes some sense rounding out a lethal receiving trio alongside the Ohio State star and veteran speedster D.J. Moore. However, if Chicago instead decides to invest the No. 1 overall pick in USC quarterback Caleb Williams, Evans makes even more sense in the Windy City as a reliable veteran weapon to raise Williams' ceiling in the Bears' offense immediately. Only seven teams have more cap space than the Bears' $50.2 million and Evans immediately makes the passing game more prolific.
Cincinnati Bengals
If the Bengals lose Tee Higgins, viewed by many as the top receiver available in free agency this offseason, there are plenty worse options to replace him than Evans. Cincinnati is going to look to bounce back from missing the postseason in 2023 and rebound around Joe Burrow's return in 2024 but may need to revamp the wide receiving corps alongside Ja'Marr Chase to return to its status as a Super Bowl contender. Evans' best traits align with what the Bengals do best in the passing game, and Burrow would immediately be the most gifted quarterback that he has caught passes from, given Tom Brady's advanced age by the time he arrived in Tampa Bay. Stability at quarterback in a vertical offense could be an alluring combination for Evans, should he test the open-market.
