One of the most dreaded days for NFL players set to become free agents is right around the corner, as the window for teams to apply the franchise tag begins on Tuesday, February 20.
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Several teams have major decisions to make, when it comes to some of their top players, whether to deploy the tag, keeping them from hitting the open-market, signing them to long-term extensions or allowing them to walk via free agency.
Here's a look at some of the top franchise tag candidates to watch in coming weeks, and a prediction for whether their teams wind up tagging them:
Baltimore Ravens: Justin Madubuike, DL
Justin Madubuike became a household name across the NFL, and one of the most important pieces of the Ravens' dominance on defense in 2023.
One of the premier defensive tackles in the league, Madubuike produced 13 sacks while adding 64 pressures, underscoring not only his value but also the importance of a strong interior pass rush to a defense's success. The Ravens will likely look to get a long-term contract done with the rising 26-year-old. However, currently projected to be $7 million over the cap, using the franchise tag on Madubuike seems far less feasible than agreeing to an extension to spread out his cap hit over the next several seasons before free agency begins.
Prediction: NOT Tagged ($19.7 Million)
Carolina Panthers: Brian Burns, EDGE
Brian Burns has consistently been one of the more productive pass-rushers across the entire league, and undoubtedly has designs on finally playing for a contender.
However, Burns is a homegrown talent who has produced 46 sacks over his first five seasons and is coming off an eight-sack 2023 campaign. The combination of a weak incoming draft class at the position and the fact that the Panthers currently are projected to have approximately $26.5 million in effective cap space as the offseason begins make tagging Burns to keep him in Carolina for at least one more season a no-brainer.
Prediction: Tagged For $23.34 Million
Chicago Bears: Jaylon Johnson, CB
This offseason may finally be the inflection point in Jaylon Johnson's quest for a long-term contract.
One of the most vital players to the Bears' trajectory on defense, and a building block caliber player at a premium position, Johnson was named to the Pro Bowl and a Second-Team All-Pro in 2023. After intercepting four passes and producing 41 total tackles, look for the Bears — who have upwards of $70 million in cap space as the offseason begins to sign Johnson to a lucrative long-term contract. However, if the two sides can't reach an accord before free agency sets to begin, Johnson would be a lock to be tagged as a lever to keep negotiations ongoing.
Prediction: Tagged For $18.42 Million
Cincinnati Bengals: Tee Higgins, WR
Cincinnati has built one of the most prolific trios of wide receivers in the league, around quarterback Joe Burrow. While FanBuzz reports that Tyler Boyd is expected to hit free agency, the Bengals likely aren't going to let Tee Higgins hit the open market without a fight.
Higgins has caught 257 passes for 3,684 yards and 24 touchdowns through the first four seasons of his career. Given that the Bengals are projected to have upwards of $61.3 million in cap space, there's little reason to expect Higgins won't be lining up opposing Ja'Marr Chase when the 2024 season begins.
Prediction: Tagged For $21.66 Million
Houston Texans: Jonathan Greenard, EDGE
The Houston Texans simultaneously exceeded every expectation in 2023, while its young core raises the franchise's ceiling as a legitimate Super Bowl contender in 2024. Jonathan Greenard is a major piece of that puzzle.
Few players benefitted more from head coach DeMeco Ryans' arrival in Houston than Greenard, 26, did in 2023. Last season, Greenard posted a career-high 12.5 sacks, while playing opposite No. 3 overall pick Will Anderson Jr. Since the Texans have upwards of $65 million in cap space this offseason, it would make far more sense to tag Greenard and continue building out Ryans' defense by adding at other positions than gambling that another veteran such as Eagles pass-rusher Haason Reddick or 49ers defensive end Chase Young hits free agency and chooses to sign with Houston.
Prediction: Tagged For $23.34 Million
Indianapolis Colts: Michael Pittman Jr., WR
Multiple sources across the NFL, including agents familiar with the wide receiver market, tell FanBuzz that Pittman is a prime candidate to sign a mega-contract in free agency. However, the Colts aren't likely to allow him to hit the open-market.
After catching a career-high 109 passes for 1,152 yards and four touchdowns, Pittman emerged not only as one of the ascending young talents at the wide receiver position but proved himself almost irreplaceable in head coach Shane Steichen's offense and quarterback Anthony Richardson's supporting cast. As the Colts look to provide some explosiveness for Richardson, once he returns fully healthy in 2024, the Colts tagging Pittman, with over $61.3 million in cap space becomes one of the easier decisions league-wide this offseason.
Prediction: Tagged For $21.66 Million
Jacksonville Jaguars: Josh Allen, EDGE
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Josh Allen is one of the most disruptive pass-rushers in the NFL, and coming off one of the most prolific seasons of his career.
Allen is exactly the type of player the Jaguars want to build the defense around, and produced 17.5 sacks with 33 quarterback hits during a stellar 2023 campaign. A former No. 7 overall draft pick, Allen is a foundational player. However, the Jaguars have just $11.2 million in cap space as this offseason begins. Rather than committing a one-year franchise tag deal to Allen, the more likely scenario here is that Jacksonville makes Allen one of the highest-paid players at the position while spreading his cap hit across the next four years.
Prediction: NOT Tagged ($23.34 Million)
Kansas City Chiefs: Chris Jones, DL
Chris Jones is going to be the highest-paid defensive player in the NFL by the time this offseason comes to a close.
Arguably the most dominant interior defensive lineman in the league, Jones has been a catalyst to the Chiefs' success, defensively, and might be the most important player not named "Patrick Mahomes' to Kansas City's prospects of a Super Bowl three-peat. Given that teams such as the Washington Commanders, Tennessee Titans, Chicago Bears, New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals all have upwards of $60 million in cap space, the Chiefs would be wise to use the tag — at minimum, as a placeholder to extend long-term contract negotiations. Jones becomes a tag priority, even over All-Pro cornerback L'Jarius Sneed.
Prediction: Tagged For $32.16 Million
Miami Dolphins: Christian Wilkins, DT
The Dolphins would love to ensure Christian Wilkins remains a building block along the defensive line and a roadblock for opposing running backs, but Miami might not be in a position to make that happen.
As the offseason gets underway, the Dolphins are projected to be $51 million over the cap. It's more likely that the Dolphins work to extend Wilkins, or allow him to walk before investing a premium draft pick along the defensive line than further exasperating its cap woes before free agency even begins.
Prediction: NOT Tagged ($19.73 Million)
Minnesota Vikings: Danielle Hunter, EDGE
In a limited pass-rusher market, Danielle Hunter has a chance to be the most coveted players available, if the Vikings allow him to walk.
However, after deciding not to trade Hunter ahead of the 2023 NFL trade deadline, and with just over $28 million in cap space ahead of free agency getting underway, it would make far more sense for the Vikings to use the tag rather than risk losing the veteran pass-rusher in free agency.
Prediction: Tagged ($23.34 Million)
New England Patriots: Kyle Dugger, S
Given that the Patriots have a new coaching staff, led by defensive-minded Jerod Mayo, there's a chance that New England could value Dugger enough to bring him back on the tag.
However, Dugger was not the same player in 2023 that he was in 2022 — especially in coverage, which may lead the Patriots to look in a different direction. Cap space won't be an issue here, as only three teams have more spending flexibility than the Patriots' $68.8 million in cap space, but, upgrading over Dugger at safety might wind up being high on the new staff's priority list.
Prediction: NOT Tagged ($17.22 Million)
New York Giants: Xavier McKinney, S
The Giants and general manager Joe Schoen have some major decisions to make with some of the franchise's most productive and respected veteran players.
However, after using the franchise tag on running back Saquon Barkley last offseason, it would seem unlikely that Schoen would pay a premium to tag Barkley a second time. Meanwhile, Xavier McKinney is one of the rising young safeties across the league, and according to PFF, had the fourth-highest overall grade at the position. As the Giants break in a new defensive scheme, keeping a young and ascending player in place for at least one more season should be an easy decision.
Prediction: Tagged For $17.22 Million
New York Jets: Bryce Huff, EDGE
Bryce Huff is exactly the kind of player the Jets would like to keep in place, on one of the more disruptive defenses in the league, especially as quarterback Aaron Rodgers is primed to return in 2024.
However, even after Huff posted the first double-digit sack campaign of his career, New York simply does not have the spending flexibility — currently just $7.5 million under the cap to absorb a defensive end tag.
Prediction: NOT Tagged ($23.34 Million)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Antoine Winfield, S
The Buccaneers are going to have some very tough decisions to make, when it comes to deploying a potential franchise tag.
However, if talks breakdown between 25-year-old safety Antoine Winfield, who has quickly ascended to become one of the most dominant players at the position across the entire NFL, having the tag on hand to keep him in Tampa for at least 2024 could be a top priority. Even over the likes of quarterback Baker Mayfield and wide receiver Mike Evans. On the surface, it would seem easier for general manager Jason Licht to agree to terms on a long-term contract with Mayfield than meet the expectations Winfield's side might have coming into these contract talks.\
Prediction: Tagged For $17.22 Million
