When free agency begins, the running back free agent market features nearly unprecedented star power.
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After ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that one year removed from Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, and Tony Pollard all returned to their teams on the franchise tag, there's a very real possibility that all three will become available to the highest bidder when the new league year begins on March 13.
Throw in the Chargers opting against using the franchise tag on Austin Ekeler, and Derrick Henry earmarked for free agency, and that means four of the NFL's top-11 rushers from the 2023 season are primed to hit free agency.
Barkley, Jacobs, Pollard, Ekeler, and Henry make up arguably the deepest free agent class at the position but all must navigate the pitfalls of running backs never being valued less by teams throughout the league.
As the NFL descends on Indianapolis for the NFL Combine, with free agency looming, FanBuzz surveyed several NFL coaches and executives to get their thoughts on each top running back.
Here's a look at the free agency outlook, and best fits, for the running backs primed to hit the market.
Saquon Barkley
After initially being tagged by the Giants, Barkley played the 2023 season on a reworked one-year contract and answered many of the lingering questions after injuries wreaked havoc on significant portions of the first five seasons of his career.
Rushing for 962 yards with six touchdowns while adding 41 receiving yards, Barkley showed he remains an explosive and productive back, even if an ankle sprain kept him out of the lineup for three weeks.
"Saquon's honestly had up and down production during his career," an AFC Scouting Director tells FanBuzz, when asked his view of Barkley. "He's an explosive and talented three-down player, but I wouldn't sign him to big money."
Since being chosen No. 2 overall by the Giants in the 2018 NFL Draft, Barkley has rushed for 5,211 yards
Best Fit: Dallas Cowboys
There's little question the Cowboys are all-in on the 2024 season. If Dallas can significantly lower Dak Prescott's cap number with a long-term extension, Barkley's versatility as a playmaker with the ball in his hands as a runner or pass-catcher out of the backfield could round out one of the most dangerous collections of skill players in the league.
Austin Ekeler
Photo by Ryan Kang/Getty Images
Just over a year since requesting a trade from the Los Angeles Chargers, all signs point to Ekeler having the chance to pick his next destination via free agency this offseason.
Ironically, given new head coach Jim Harbaugh's arrival, Ekeler might benefit more in returning to his former team than any of the other top running backs hitting free agency. Harbaugh will likely lean heavily on the running game, but Los Angeles could look to prioritize taking a back early in April's draft. Ekeler is an end-zone magnet, scoring 69 total touchdowns through his first 103 career games.
"Austin's a really good back," an NFL Offensive Coach tells FanBuzz. "Any team that uses their running back extensively in the passing game would be a perfect fit.
Ekeler hits free agency having logged 990 carries and 440 receptions on 550 targets, which makes him a prototypical fit for an offense both aiming to break in a young quarterback or that heavily utilizes its running backs in the passing game.
Best Fit: Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles have historically cycled through running backs before getting to the point of needing to commit top-dollar to the position. Presuming D'Andre Swift is elsewhere next season, there's a belief in league circles that Ekeler could provide upside in the passing game as well as benefitting from not needing to be a lead-back in Philadelphia.
Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry is as accomplished a running back to hit free agency as the NFL has seen in at least a decade.
Henry rushed for a combined 3,567 yards and 33 touchdowns during the 2019 and 2020 seasons when he won the rushing crown in back-to-back years. Meanwhile, Henry has rushed for over 1,000 yards in four of the past five seasons, underscoring his productivity and longevity.
The type of back who could put a contending team over the top, expect a robust market for Henry when free agency begins.
Best Fit: Baltimore Ravens
There might not be a better fit at any position in free agency than Derrick Henry and the Baltimore Ravens. Todd Monken made no bones about Baltimore being a run-first offense in his first season as offensive coordinator, and Henry remains a battering ram in short-yardage as well as the open field. It's easy to see Lamar Jackson benefitting from Henry's presence as a between-the-tackles bruiser, and further taxing opposing front-sevens who will need to be both quick enough to contain Jackson on the run and avoid getting steamrolled by Henry.
Tony Pollard
Photo by Ryan Kang/Getty Images
It took a while for Pollard to be given his chance to shine, following Ezekiel Elliott's departure, but the former fourth-round pick showed that he has feature-back upside during a strong 2023 season.
Pollard fell two yards shy of tying a career-best rushing total, finishing this past season with 1,005 yards and six touchdowns, while appearing in 17 games for the first time in his career. Given that Pollard suffered a torn ACL in the NFC Divisional Round in January 2023, his production becomes even more impressive.
"There isn't a team in this league that shouldn't be interested in Pollard," an NFC Personnel Executive tells FanBuzz. "That kind can do it all."
Still, the Cowboys are likely to look to upgrade the position, pushing all the chips into this season in an effort to break a generational NFC Championship Game drought, but Pollard makes a lot of sense for a contending team looking for an upgrade at running back.
Best Fit: Houston Texans
Behind rookie quarterback, and No. 1 overall pick, C.J. Stroud, the Houston Texans were a revelation in 2023. However, the Texans finished just 23rd in the NFL in rushing offense last season and could prioritize adding a feature-back to Stroud's arsenal in 2024.
Josh Jacobs
Josh Jacobs is one year removed from winning the rushing crown, posting a career-high 1,653 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns while averaging a personal-best 4.9 yards per carry.
However, through his first 73 games, Jacobs has already logged 1,305 rushes and is coming off a 2023 campaign that was cut short by a Week 14 quad injury. Jacobs' immense early-career workload and lengthy injury history is giving some teams pause.
"He's tough, that's for sure," an AFC East Personnel Director tells FanBuzz. "Has contact balance, but the worry is that he's lost a step. Josh is definitely still capable, but there likely isn't a ton of tread left on those tires."
Still, when healthy, Jacobs is arguably a top-five running back in the league and could see a substantial market.
Best Fit: Chicago Bears
Momentum seems to be building towards the Bears selecting USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick in April's draft. If that's the case, general manager Ryan Poles and head coach Matt Eberflus owe it to Williams — and the franchise, to surround the young quarterback with game-altering talent. If nothing else, Jacobs is capable of shouldering a 20-plus touch workload per game. Meanwhile, Jacobs' 197 career receptions make him possibly the perfect player to exploit opposing defenses on screens, wheel routes, and underneath routes that can help a young passer build confidence.
