We're almost to the end of the NFL regular season, which means for some teams that the season is about to wrap up — but for a select few, it's just getting started. Still, teams that fall into both brackets — and those somewhere in between — feature some tremendous talent, and it's officially time to recognize the league's best.
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The initial round of Pro Bowl selectees has been released and, as always, plenty of great players are on the list. But perhaps some even better ones aren't there at all. Without further ado, let's take a look at the five biggest snubs from this year's Pro Bowl nominees, as well as a handful of honorable mentions.
Honorable Mentions
Teven Jenkins (Guard, Chicago Bears)
We're leaving Teven Jenkins in this section because he did miss some time — and because, frankly, while he's more deserving than a pair of the NFC nominees, there's someone even more deserving than Jenkins who was also left off the list. But Jenkins' inspired play deserves some recognition. His return from injury instantly transformed a Bears offensive line that had been one of the league's worst throughout the Justin Fields era and is suddenly looking like a borderline-elite unit.
Penei Sewell (Tackle, Detroit Lions)
Yes, this is a weird one, since Penei Sewell did make the Pro Bowl, which is why it's just an honorable mention. But the fact that he's there as a reserve rather than a starter is patently absurd. The young Lions star is the best offensive lineman in the sport right now by just about any measure and should be starting over Lane Johnson, the second-best offensive tackle on his own team.
Quincy Williams and C.J. Mosley (Inside Linebackers, New York Jets)
Choosing just one of these two guys would be a tough call, so we're not going to. I'm not advocating for both to be included — just one would be enough — but the league's best linebacker pairing should be represented at the Pro Bowl. It doesn't much matter which one of them gets the nod; they're both top 10 in Pro Football Focus' overall defensive grade for off-ball linebackers and top 3 in coverage, forming a ridiculously formidable duo at the heart of a super-elite defense.
5. T.J. Hockenson (TE, Minnesota Vikings)
Photo by David Berding/Getty Images
It's an Iowa tight end party in the NFC's Pro Bowl roster, as former Hawkeyes George Kittle and Sam LaPorta made the squad. Incredibly enough, there's a third tight end from the same school in the same conference, and he was arguably better than either of the others this season.
That would be T.J. Hockenson. His yardage numbers trailed behind Kittle's, and his touchdown numbers were behind Laporta's. But his performance was arguably the most impressive as he continued to keep the Minnesota offense afloat after the Vikes lost Kirk Cousins and, for a while, Justin Jefferson. LaPorta and Kittle both had awesome seasons, but producing in the San Francisco or Detroit offense this season was simply easier than doing so in Minnesota, and Hockenson still came close to matching their numbers.
4. Kevin Dotson (OG, Los Angeles Rams)
As I alluded to in the section about Jenkins, there were a pair of guards whose cases to be on the Pro Bowl roster were tenuous at best. Those beneficiaries of the fan vote — which rarely picks out the best offensive linemen — are Dallas' Zack Martin and Philly's Landon Dickerson. Both are key members of a pair of the league's best lines, and Martin is an all-time great, but this was a vote driven by name brand.
The Rams aren't a football brand that comes close to touching the Cowboys or Eagles. The NFC East powers are locked in a fascinating division race, while LA has hovered around .500 for most of this season. This hurt Kevin Dotson in the voting, but he should have been in as one of the best in the business — the NFL's second best, according to PFF. Chris Lindstrom is at the top of the list, so he's a deserving starter. But neither Dickerson nor Martin is in the top 10, and one should have missed out in favor of Dotson.
3. Dustin Hopkins (K, Cleveland Browns)
Yep, we're booting Justin Tucker, the greatest kicker to ever kick. He's been really good this year, as always, but it's a relative down year by his lofty standards, and this was essentially a reputation/career achievement vote. Tucker has hit 31 field goals on 36 attempts, while Dustin Hopkins has hit 33 given the same workload. Hopkins is also a very impressive 8-for-8 from 50 yards or beyond, while Tucker is an uncharacteristic 1-for-5 from that range.
When you factor in how important Hopkins' kicks have been to a Cleveland team that often has to scrape through by a margin of just a few points — compared with Tucker's place in a Ravens team that has become a blowout machine — this choice becomes even more ridiculous, and transparently about past performance than this season. Of course, this could very easily be fixed if the Ravens make the Super Bowl and Tucker withdraws from the Pro Bowl, but it would have been nice to see Hopkins receive primary recognition.
2. Josh Allen (QB, Buffalo Bills)
Of course, we can't just say that somebody should be in — for every addition, there has to be a subtraction, since this is a zero-sum game. This year's AFC Pro Bowl quarterbacks are Tua Tagovailoa, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes; it's a pretty ridiculously loaded group, but one has to go. It can't be Tagovailoa, the fan-voted starter and the leader of the league's most explosive offense. It's also not about to be Jackson, the presumptive NFL MVP.
That's right, we're ditching Mahomes. Allen is crushing Mahomes in every single advanced metric, from big-time throws to average depth of target, and even turnover-worthy play rate. Allen nearly leads the league in picks, but he's been quite unlucky; his 18 turnover-worthy plays have yielded 16 interceptions, compared with figures of 21 and 14 for Mahomes.
Allen is the driving force of a Bills offense that has been excellent in recent weeks, while Mahomes' Chiefs are floundering more than ever. Like the kicker spot, this was a reputation pick for an all-time great rather than a reflection of who's had the best year. Let's rectify that. The good news is that one of the four — Mahomes, Jackson, Tagovailoa or Allen — is exceedingly likely to make the Super Bowl. If it's one of the first three, you'd imagine that Allen is in the Pro Bowl. If he's the one who gets through a stacked AFC, he'll have the last laugh and won't care a bit about this particular accolade.
1. Antoine Winfield Jr. (S, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images
It's common for a deserving player to miss the Pro Bowl, but you get into some dicey territory when possibly the single best player at his position in the entire league is snubbed. That's what's going on with Antoine Winfield Jr., who has traditionally been a strong safety, has played more of a free role this year, and could genuinely qualify as the best at either spot. Jessie Bates has been fantastic for Atlanta, so we're not going to harp on a comparison between him and Winfield, but let's look at the rest of the position group.
First, it's entirely arbitrary that there's one free safety and two strong; the AFC has the opposite balance, so Winfield going in wouldn't have to be at Bates' expense, whether he's classified as free or strong. So let's look at the strong safeties who did make it for the NFC: Arizona's Budda Baker and Seattle's Julian Love. They've both had solid seasons but were barely Pro Bowl-caliber and nowhere near Winfield's level.
Winfield's overall defensive grade from PFF is a sparkling 90.7, only behind Bates' 90.8 for safeties in either conference. Love's score is down at 72.5, and Baker's is 64.9, making him the third-highest-graded qualifying safety on the Arizona Cardinals alone. Baker is the pretty easy choice for whom to omit. But the point stands that Winfield should be in over either; the gap from him and Bates in their own tier to the rest of the field is so broad that it hardly matters which.
