If the Dolphins are indeed headed toward life after Tua Tagovailoa, the mechanics of how they get there are going to be messy.
Videos by FanBuzz
Photo by Lauren Leigh Bacho/Getty Images
As Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk outlined, the cleanest offramp would be to release Tagovailoa on the first day of the 2026 league year with a post-June one designation. That would saddle Miami with a massive $99.2 million cap hit, spread over two seasons, with $55.4 million counting in 2026 and $43.8 million in 2027.
Trading him before June one is not much easier. Florio notes that such a move would still leave Miami with a $65.2 million cap charge in 2026, plus whatever portion of Tagovailoa's $55 million compensation package the Dolphins would need to absorb to entice another team. The more Miami pays, the better the return, at least in theory.
That assumes there is a market.
Florio also floated a more extreme option, one borrowed from Houston's infamous Brock Osweiler deal. Miami could attach draft picks and send Tagovailoa's guaranteed money to another team. But the math is daunting. If the 2026 salary cap approaches $300 million, Tagovailoa's $54 million in guarantees would take up roughly 18 percent of a team's cap.
That would require significant draft compensation, far more than the second-rounder Cleveland received for Osweiler.
Another model comes from the Rams' Jared Goff trade, where draft capital was essentially used to escape guaranteed money. Still, Florio makes clear that moving Tagovailoa via trade will be difficult.
Ultimately, the decision may come down to belief. Some coaches will be turned off by the measurables. Others by durability or turnovers. But it only takes one staff member to think it can unlock the good while limiting the bad.
For now, Florio suggests the most likely outcome is a post-June 1 release. That would allow Tagovailoa to hit free agency, potentially on a one-year, $1.3 million minimum deal, while Miami remains on the hook for the rest.
A stunning place to land for a quarterback who signed a $53.1 million-per-year deal just last year.
