Las Vegas and Homestead are in the past and now only Martinsville stands between playoff drivers and the Championship 4.
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The problem for the remaining six is that they are racing for only two spots after Joey Logano won at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Tyler Reddick won at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Christopher Bell is in the best position among these drivers. He has a 29-point cushion heading to the track where he won in 2022. He put himself in this position by scoring 13 stage points and finishing fourth at Homestead.
Reddick took some of Bell's cushion by winning from below the cutline, but these points helped the Joe Gibbs Racing driver keep himself solidly in contention for a third consecutive trip to the Championship 4.
"I guess I'm out of here with a top-five and getting points is really good," Bell said after the race. "You have to win races in the Round of 8, and we haven't done that yet.
"We'll go to Martinsville, and yeah, I feel confident about where we're at in Martinsville. (It) has been a good track for us in the past and I think we can build on that."
William Byron, who finished sixth, is much closer to the cutline. He is only seven points to the good, but this is not much of an advantage heading to the elimination race at Martinsville Speedway.
After all, this is a track where the slightest mistake can lead to a driver falling off the lead lap and never recovering. Byron knows this all too well after struggling in last season's elimination race at Martinsville and finishing 13th. He barely advanced to the championship race after ending the day one lap behind the leaders.
One race.
One last opportunity to make the #Championship4. #NASCARPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/glWhEDU3G9
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 27, 2024
"I feel like a sixth-place finish is good," Byron said. "If it had gone green there, we were going to end up top-five. I don't know how that changes the points, but we just have to go to Martinsville Speedway and compete for a win."
The situation below the cutline is just as murky. Only two drivers are in a position to potentially point their way into the Championship 4. Larson is seven points behind Byron while Denny Hamlin is 18 points behind after he finished third.
The two drivers had wildly different days. Larson hit the wall early with a flat tire. He had to make several extra pit stops so the team could continue working on the No. 5 Chevrolet. He even fell to 35th in the running order in stage 2.
Larson's team did enough work to make the Chevrolet better, and the 2021 Cup champion began to challenge for the lead with under 20 laps to go in the race. However, he then spun while taking the field three wide. This caution set up Reddick's comeback win and led to Larson finishing 13th.
Hamlin, for comparison, won his first stage since Indianapolis in mid-July. He then took the lead on the final restart.
The Joe Gibbs Racing driver was not able to stay at the front of the pack and punch his ticket to the Championship 4 for the first time since 2021. He had to settle for third place.
Still, 18 points is not insurmountable.
"Yeah, it's another opportunity," Hamlin said. "Certainly, you're not out of it till they throw the checkered flag at Martinsville."
Ryan Blaney, the reigning champion, is 38 points below the cutline after losing the lead to Reddick in the final turn. Chase Elliott, the 2020 Cup champion, is 43 points below despite scoring 17 stage points and finishing fifth.
Neither driver is likely to point his way to Phoenix. Winning is the path forward for both of the former champions, something they have each done in the past.
"It is a shame it didn't work out but we did have good fortune at Martinsville last year," Blaney said. "So hopefully we can bring the same kind of speed and be in contention to win."
