Saturday afternoon, Denny Hamlin sat on the stage at Phoenix Raceway and said that he has not hit the panic button. He still saw a path to his first Cup Series championship.
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Yet one day later, a prime opportunity to gain ground slipped through his grasp at Phoenix Raceway as he dealt with another Chase setback.
"Some things were meant to be and some things were not meant to be," Hamlin said on pit road after a 28th-place finish. "There have been so many cards that have been dealt in my career in these playoffs, the Chase, that I've seen it all.
"Nothing surprises me anymore. Nothing surprises me. It's not like... I'm not shell-shocked because I've been here."
The race weekend started with Hamlin putting himself in contention for stage points early. He qualified fourth at the track where he led 208 laps last November.
The same track where a late caution and a four-tire pit call prevented him from winning his first championship.
Stages 1 and 2 featured Hamlin running inside the top 10 and scoring points. He finished second in stage 1 and eighth in stage 2. Meanwhile, championship leader Kyle Larson missed out on stage points with a car lacking speed and the handling he needed.
The stage seemed set for Hamlin to potentially contend for the race win and challenge Larson for the points lead. He raced in third place with 92 laps left in the race. But suddenly, his right rear tire went flat.
TIRE DOWN FOR DENNY HAMLIN.
📺📱 : USA Network pic.twitter.com/IAuiJow1Zx
— NASCAR on USA (@NASCARonUSA) October 18, 2026
Hamlin slowed and tried to keep the car moving toward pit road. He was mostly successful. The No. 11 Toyota shot toward the outside wall, but he kept it from making contact.
Hamlin made it to pit road while falling one lap down, but it appeared that he would get some assistance from another driver. Cody Ware spun and brought out the caution.
This should have given Hamlin the free pass, but it didn't. He actually received a penalty for speeding entering pit road. This kept him from getting the free pass or taking the wave around.
"Just a corner before I felt the car bottom out," Hamlin said. "I knew at that point definitely had a tire.
"At that point trying to hang on and somehow try to get to pit road. Obviously had no idea where I was on speed with the right rear tire on it."
Instead of getting back on the lead lap and having an opportunity to make it through the field, Hamlin had to spend the rest of the race buried in the field. He had to settle for a 28th-place finish.
Although he still gained some crucial points and moved to 31 points behind Larson. That was the benefit of Larson missing out on stage points and finishing in 33rd place.
This race only served as the latest example of the setbacks that Hamlin has faced throughout the Chase. He and his team have not shown the consistency that propelled them to the No. 1 seed during the regular season.
These issues started during the first race of the Chase. Contact from Michael McDowell put him into the wall and led to a broken toe link. This followed a pit stop that put him back into the middle of the pack to start the final stage. He finished 18th but maintained a slight points lead.
The missed opportunities continued with a chaotic race at World Wide Technology Raceway where Hamlin only scored five stage points, a race at Bristol where he only scored eight, and a race at Las Vegas where he spun from fourth place in the closing laps of stage 1.
Hamlin has had speed at multiple tracks during the Chase, but he has only scored 40 or more points in two races. He has also missed out on the all-important wins that pay the bonus points.
"I mean, I feel like just need — when we got a good car like the second half of the race today — to finish well," Hamlin said. "We just haven't finished."
