CONCORD, N.C. — Daniel Suarez enters the Roval elimination race 20 points below the Round of 8 cutline, but he doesn't believe he is in a must-win situation.
Suarez knows from firsthand experience how a driver above the cutline can watch their cushion disappear in only a few laps.
"Honestly, it reminds me a lot of what happened to myself in 2022," Suarez said Saturday. "I came here with like 15 or 18 points to the good, and then my steering broke and I finished 32nd. ... Anything can happen here."
Suarez had made the playoffs in the first year of the Next Gen car by winning a race at Sonoma. He advanced through the first round of the playoffs by finishing 18th, 10th, and 19th at Darlington, Kansas, and Bristol.
Suarez then kicked off the Round of 12 by finishing 12th at Texas and eighth at Talladega. It appeared that he would move to the Round of 8, especially after he qualified third at the Roval. However, he fell five laps behind the leaders.
Suarez ended the race in 36th and failed to advance in the playoffs while Christopher Bell won after entering the weekend in a must-win situation. Chase Briscoe advanced on points due to Suarez's power steering failure and Kyle Larson's broken toe link.
The Trackhouse Racing driver enters Sunday's elimination race in a different situation considering that he needs to make up a good amount of points. He can do this by maximizing his stage points. If chaos unfolds and affects another playoff driver, this will only benefit Suarez.
Of course, the Trackhouse Racing road course program has not been at the expected level this season. This is a team that has celebrated wins at Circuit of the Americas, the streets of Chicago, and Sonoma Raceway with three different drivers, so there is an expectation of success.
Suarez hasn't been in contention at road courses, however, considering that his worst finish is 31st at Circuit of the Americas and his best finish is 11th at Chicago. He continues to seek his first top-10 on a road course this season as he prepares for the elimination race.
"I believe the 99 team was missing something on road courses maybe three months ago," Suarez said before adding that the team has "found some good stuff" in recent weeks.
Part of this process of improving has been extensive work in the simulator to prep for the return of the Charlotte Roval.
This is a road course where Suarez has no top-10 finishes in six Cup Series starts, but that was on the old configuration. This year's layout is different with the Turn 7 hairpin headlining the numerous changes.
Suarez doesn't yet know if this simulator work will translate into success on the track, but he remains confident heading into a race that will determine whether he can contend for the championship.
"Hopefully all these things lead us in the right direction," Suarez said. "We'll find out. We may have a rocket ship, or we have to turn everything back. So we'll find out. But I'm pretty confident."
Even if Suarez doesn't score a win or stockpile a ton of points, there is still an opportunity to leapfrog such drivers as Chase Elliott (+13) and Tyler Reddick (+14). He just needs a little chaos.
