Kyle Larson has a 73-point lead over Denny Hamlin in the Chase standings, but the Joe Gibbs Racing driver can still catch his peer. He just needs to maximize his two races while getting some signficant help.
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First and foremost, Hamlin needs to win to give himself a fighting chance. He needs to be within 22 points of Larson exiting Martinsville, which would require at least a 50-point day. Winning would put him on the right path.
Yet simply winning this race and then the finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway may not necessarily help Hamlin catch Larson and clinch the title. He would only have a 60% chance to win his first championship by sweeping the two remaining races.
In order to boost this number, he would need Larson to have days ranging between mediocre and terrible. NASCAR notes that the two-time champion would have to average 16.5 or fewer points over the final two weeks of the season.
Larson would still have an 81.4% chance to win the title after a DNF at Martinsville.
Larson has scored fewer than 16.5 points in 10 races this season, with the Phoenix Chase race serving as the most recent example (three points). He has scored at least 40 points in 14 races. He has scored more than 70 points in three Chase races.
According to notes provided by NASCAR, Larson has a 36.8% chance to clinch his third title this weekend at Martinsville. He just needs to be 77 points ahead of the driver in second place in the standings. His current title odds are 92.3%.
The situation appears to be rather bleak for Hamlin, but he does have his history providing some support entering the final two races as he tries to catch Larson.
The Joe Gibbs Racing driver is the active wins leader at Martinsville Speedway with six trips to victory lane. He most recently won the 2025 spring race after winning a stage. Hamlin has also posted six top-five finishes at Martinsville in the Gen 7 era, including a runner-up this spring.
He has also achieved success at Homestead-Miami Speedway during his Cup Series career while winning three times and posting top-10 finishes in 66.7% of his starts. He has three finishes of seventh or better in the Gen 7 era at Homestead.
Of course, this past success does not guarantee that Hamlin and the No. 11 team will rise to the occasion this weekend and the next. This team has had 12 significant issues split between six Chase races. The result is that he has scored fewer than 40 points six times in eight Chase races.
