MARTINSVILLE, Va. — Once again, the NASCAR Cup Series championship will come down to one final race. Unlike the finales that took place in 2014-25, the title battle will be far simpler.
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Kyle Larson only needs to score a mere nine points to clinch his third championship and to become the first driver since Jimmie Johnson in 2006-10 to win consecutive titles.
Yet, he still has concerns about accomplishing this, especially after an afternoon at Martinsville Speedway in which he missed out on stage points and finished ninth.
"I absolutely will feel some pressure this week," Larson said at Martinsville Speedway. "I know it's a large gap. Crazy things can happen. Just got to go there and execute like we have all Chase, yeah, just be ready to capitalize."
Unlike in the elimination era, only three drivers are still in contention for the championship. This group includes Larson, Christopher Bell, and Denny Hamlin.
The other 13 Chase drivers have officially been eliminated after William Byron won the Sunday afternoon race at Martinsville Speedway.
Bell is 67 points behind Larson while Hamlin is 70 points behind. These are large deficits to overcome, but this is something that remains possible in the revamped Chase.
Sweeping the stages and winning the race pays 75 points. Adding the Xfinity Fastest Lap makes for a 76-point day.
The problem for these other two contenders is that they don't control their own destiny. Either Bell or Hamlin could deliver the perfect points race, but they would still need some help.
They would need Larson to have a catastrophic day and finish worse than 28th. They would need him to completely miss out on stage points.
This is something that is possible, but it remains highly unlikely. Both Bell and Hamlin acknowledged that it's not "realistic" to believe they can chase down Larson to win the championship.
To their point, Larson has posted an average finish of 6.77 during the Chase while winning three races. The lone exception is Phoenix Raceway where he scored three points after crashing and finishing 34th.
Now, he will aim to score at least nine points at the track where he has achieved success throughout his national series career — Homestead-Miami Speedway. This is a track where Larson has an average finish of 12.0 in 12 Cup Series starts with six top-five finishes and two wins.
