The regular season and the opening round of the playoffs are complete, so now the time has come for all three national NASCAR series to crown their champions. Twelve drivers will head to Phoenix Raceway in contention for the title, but only three will end the weekend celebrating.
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As is the case in recent seasons, everything that happened before does not matter. The only important thing is how these drivers perform on race day. Whichever one finishes the best in each race will lock up the title.
Which drivers enter the weekend as favorites, and which enter the weekend as underdogs?
Cup Series Championship Preview
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The drivers: Chase Briscoe, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, William Byron
The big picture: This is possibly the most wide-open field in the Gen 7 era. The Team Penske dominance at Phoenix Raceway will not matter this weekend. Instead, four drivers with prior wins at the 1-mile oval will meet for the biggest prize. All four of these drivers are among the series best in laps led, wins, top-five finishes, and top-10s.
Briscoe has the most top-five finishes (15) and the third-most laps led (881). He has three wins. Larson has the second-most laps led (1,106) and second-most top-10 finishes (21). He also has three wins.
Byron is the regular-season champion. He leads the series in laps led (1,278), and he has three wins. Hamlin has the fourth-most laps led (816) despite missing one race. He is the series wins leader (six), and he has the second-most top-five finishes (14).
The favorite: Of the members of this group, Hamlin stands out as more of a favorite. He has 60 wins in his Cup Series career, including two at Phoenix Raceway. He is also making his fifth appearance in the Championship 4. There is something to be said about experiencing this unique week and the pressure it brings.
The underdogs*: This group does not have any true underdogs, but Larson and Byron are more likely to fall into this category due to Hendrick Motorsports' struggles at Phoenix Raceway in the last few championship races. Larson and Byron have not been as fast as Joey Logano or Ryan Blaney during the championship race.
Chase Elliott didn't complete the 2022 championship race after contact from Ross Chastain led to a wreck on a restart.
HMS vice chairman Jeff Gordon said last weekend that the organization has made Phoenix Raceway a much bigger priority the last two seasons, but Sunday's race will provide the actual evidence.
Xfinity Series Championship Preview
Photo credit: Nigel Kinrade Photography
The drivers: Connor Zilisch, Justin Allgaier, Carson Kvapil, Jesse Love
The favorite: Two drivers fall into the category of favorites. Zilisch understandably tops the list after leading the series with 10 wins, 19 top-five finishes, and 22 top-10s. He also has led 986 laps despite missing one race due to a back injury and most of another due to a broken collarbone. Zilisch only has one finish worse than ninth in the last 20 races.
While Zilisch has dominated the wins category, one of his teammates has led nearly as many laps. Allgaier heads to Phoenix with three wins, 14 top-five finishes, 19 top-10s, and 973 laps led. Allgaier is the defending champion, and he has led 730 laps while winning twice at the 1-mile oval.
The underdogs: Kvapil and Love have both run consistently this season, but they fall into this underdogs category for multiple reasons.
Kvapil only has seven top-five finishes and 14 top-10s this season. He has only led 104 laps, and he only has one career start at Phoenix Raceway. He finished 26th in his Xfinity debut at the track.
Love has led 262 laps this season while posting 21 top-10 finishes and eight top-fives in 32 starts. His lone win took place at Daytona International Speedway in February. Richard Childress Racing hasn't had the same level of consistent speed as JR Motorsports this season.
One thing that does play in Love's favor is his history at Phoenix. He has finished second, sixth, and ninth in his three starts at the 1-mile oval.
Truck Series Championship Preview
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The drivers: Corey Heim, Tyler Ankrum, Kaden Honeycutt, Ty Majeski
The favorite: No driver has delivered more success this season than Heim. The Tricon Garage driver has simply dominated the Truck Series season while setting multiple records.
He has won the pole seven times and posted 20 top-10 finishes in 24 starts. He has won 11 races, setting a single-season series record in the process. Heim only needs to lead nine laps at Phoenix to break Mike Skinner's record from the 1996 season.
Heim has not won at Phoenix, but he came close last season. He crossed the line second in the championship race. The only driver who finished ahead of him was Majeski, who won his first title.
While Majeski dominated the championship race last season, he does not necessarily fall into the favorite category. The entire ThorSport Racing lineup has struggled this season while going winless.
Majeski only has nine top-five finishes and 190 laps led. Of course, Phoenix is one of his best tracks, and the team will head into the weekend solely focused on making the No. 98 Ford into a truck capable of winning.
The underdogs: The other two drivers in this Championship 4 fall into the underdogs category. Ankrum and Honeycutt will both make their Championship 4 debuts as they try to cap off Cinderella seasons.
Ankrum scored his second career win this season at Rockingham. He has eight top-five finishes, 15 top-10s, and 102 laps led this season. However, he has not finished inside the top 10 at Phoenix since the 2020 season.
Honeycutt's numbers are slightly misleading. He started the season with Niece Motorsports and made 16 starts for the Chevrolet team. However, Niece cut him loose after he agreed to join a Toyota team next season. Honeycutt spent one race with Young's Motorsports before replacing an injured Stewart Friesen at Halmar Friesen Racing.
Honeycutt has 13 top-10 finishes this season — nine with Niece Motorsports and four with Halmar Friesen Racing — and 51 laps led. His best finish was second last weekend at Martinsville Speedway. Now, his opportunity to win a championship takes place at Phoenix Raceway, a track where he has three top-10 finishes in three starts.
