The NASCAR Cup Series returns to Las Vegas Motor Speedway this weekend to kick off the Round of 8. The teams already competed at the 1.5-mile track once this season, so their past notes should translate, right?
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According to some drivers, that isn't exactly the case. Too many factors will be different. What worked in March will not necessarily work in October.
"It's probably a bit of a guessing game of who's going to be good this weekend, and we'll just have to see in practice," William Byron, a one-time Vegas winner, said ahead of the trip out west.
"Hopefully, we get a clean practice and we can have some longer runs and kind of figure out where we stack up."
Las Vegas Motor Speedway isn't a new track, so what could possibly be different? The tires are the biggest thing.
The spring race featured a Goodyear setup that will not return for the playoffs. Instead, the teams will head to the track with a new setup that they first tested at Kansas Speedway two weeks ago.
Goodyear introduced the left-side tires at Charlotte Motor Speedway before bringing them back for Michigan International Speedway, Indianapolis Motor Speedway, and Darlington Raceway. The right-side tires debuted at Kansas Speedway, so Las Vegas Motor Speedway will mark their second use.
"Kansas had a good amount of wear," said Ryan Preece, who finished third in the spring Vegas race. "As far as how you choose to manage those tires at a mile-and-a-half, I'm not entirely sure yet.
"I felt like I did a pretty good job managing our tires at the Roval and taking care of them and understanding the situation after practice, so I don't necessarily have a game plan set in stone because I feel like you need to see how practice and qualifying goes and then look through information and based off of feel make the best decisions on race day."
The weather also plays into the guessing game aspect. Back on March 16 when Josh Berry won, the temperatures started in the 50s before increasing to 73 as the day progressed. They then dipped into the mid-60s in the afternoon and evening.
This weekend's forecast calls for temperatures around 77 degrees at the start of the Cup Series race. This isn't a major change, but it could still affect the grip levels on the track as several drivers battle for spots in the Championship 4.
This is also Nevada, a state where rain and snow have caused disruptions in the past. Delays could push the race into the evening when temperatures could play a more significant role.
"I mean you just look at the nature of the season and how many mile-and-a-half tracks there's been and then how much the tire has changed and the weather is different," Byron said.
"So I would say that even our team like it's just hard to just say, 'Okay we're good in the spring, let's just kind of... let's just do the same thing."
Drivers and teams do not necessarily want to play a guessing game heading to any race on the schedule considering the importance of wins. This holds especially true during the playoffs when a win could put them in position to battle for the championship.
Unfortunately for these drivers, they will face this reality as they head to Las Vegas Motor Speedway and the first on-track session on Saturday.
