From the Coin Toss to Safety Odds: Our Five Favorite Super Bowl LVII Prop Bets

It's the Super Bowl, so it's time to get every piece of action we can on the game. You want to hop in every pool you can to get some Super Bowl squares, bet on a team to beat the spread, maybe an over/under point total, and, of course, a whole host of prop bets.

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I wrote about 20 prop bets you can make this Super Bowl and recommend you select any that makes you even more excited to watch the game, but here are my 5 favorite prop for the big game, and where I'm placing my money.

The Coin Toss

Have you heard about the curse of the coin toss yet? Since the beginning of the 2014 season every team that has won the coin flip in the Super Bowl, loses the game. That's right they are 0-8. So here's what I'm doing, I'm betting against the team that I am betting on to win the game. If I win this bet then I will be even more convinced that I am going to win my bet on the Super Bowl winner, and if I lose... I'll tell everyone the coin toss curse can't possibly move to 0-9, that it's absolutely due to lose, so this is great for my bet. No, this isn't a sharp bet statistically when you factor in that both results return -115 odds, but either way I'll get a psychological bump heading into the opening kick-off and that is probably more valuable than money.

First Score Within the First Five Minutes and 30 Seconds AND Within the First Seven Minutes and 30 Seconds

In both the Eagles and Chiefs first two playoff games, they scored on their opening offensive drives (3 TDs, 1FG). The Eagles received the ball first and scored both times between 5 minutes and 5:30 into the game. These drives were also of the longer variety, both ending in touchdowns. The Chiefs received the ball second in both games, got stops, and then proceeded to score between the first 6 and 7 minutes of the game.

These offenses have been hot out of the gate, and with an extra week to prepare and go over their opening game scripts, they should be able to continue to execute at a high-rate early. Plus, if either drive is stopped in field goal range (and the Super Bowl is inside so the range is a bit longer than it would have been in any of their previous playoff games), we've got an even easier chance to cash this bet.

I will be betting that the first score is within the first 5 minutes and 30 seconds of the game, because that is the last plus-money bet for the timing of the first score (+140). I will then hedge this bet by betting twice the amount that the score occurs within the first 7 minutes and 30 seconds (-195 odds).

This means if a score occurs early, I will win both bets at slightly less than even money. If the score occurs between the two bets I will break even, and if there isn't a score in the first half of the first quarter at all, I will lose both bets.

I believe there is firmly a better than 50 percent chance that a score will occur within the first 7:30 and I have improved my edge and limited some risk by betting on both time thresholds. This is worth it, even if it means I would lose more in the unlikely scenario neither team gets on the board quickly.

Chiefs to Score Last in the First Half

This line is currently -110 for KC and -120 for Philly, which means the sportsbook makes money either way. However, the days are long gone when Andy Reid was criticized over his struggles with clock management.

Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and the Chiefs staff are phenomenal when it comes to end of the half drives, often concluding them by scoring with very little time left on the clock for their opponents. Another reason to take the Chiefs here is that no matter how little time is left in the half, KC won't simply take a knee. As we saw last year against Buffalo, any amount of time is too much time for Mahomes and Kelce.

Betting That a Safety Will Happen at +800

There have been nine safeties in 57 Super Bowls, which is way better than +800 odds. It even happened in three consecutive Super Bowls from 2012-14.

I'm hoping the safety will be back in a big way this Super Bowl. The Eagles defensive line has been historic with their ability to rack up sacks, and Chris Jones was an absolute game-wrecker last week on Kansas City's defensive line. 

Both of these teams are aggressive near the goal line, so there is plenty of potential for each to go for it on fourth-and-goal and if they come up short, the other could take over deep in its own territory. Plus, you throw in the Chiefs All-Pro punter Tommy Townsend, with his ability to pin a team deep and it just feels like we could have either team backed up in their own end facing a heavy rush.

I like the odds, and I love cheering for a big plus money bet. Go safeties!

Both Teams Lead During 1st Half- Yes

This is a plus money bet (+140) that there is a lead change during the first half of the Super Bowl. I think both of these teams are evenly matched enough, with a spread inside 2 points, that it makes a lot of sense we could expect a back-and-forth game early as teams start to settle into the contest. As long as you believe there will be multiple scores in the first half, then there's a pretty reasonable chance to cash a bet returning at strong odds. You only need to be right just a little more than 40% of the time for this lead change bet to be profitable, and I absolutely think it is.

As you can see, I expect some scoring to occur early in this game before the defenses are able to adjust to some of the strategies the offenses will have likely implemented with their extra week of preparation. Let's hope we all come away with some solid money from these props and hit a Super Bowl square, so the outcome of the game from a gambling perspective, is just icing on the cake.

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