Kansas City Chiefs Players hold the Lombardi Trophy after winning Super Bowl LIV, Josh Allen at Buffalo Bills training camp
Left: Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images, Right: Photo by Joshua Bessex/Getty Images

Bet it or Fade it: An Early Look at the NFL Futures Odds for Super Bowl LVII

While the NFL regular season may not start until September 8, August is when we all begin to focus more on the league. In August, preseason games begin, and we already got a taste of NFL action as the Jacksonville Jaguars took on the Las Vegas Raiders in the Hall of Fame game. 

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With that, time is running out to get the best possible value on Super Bowl futures bets. Sure, you'll need to wait until after the playoffs and the big game in February to settle your NFL futures bet, but this is when the most possible value can be had. 

At DraftKings Sportsbook, the top favorite is the Buffalo Bills at +600, and this could be your last chance to get these odds. For context, if you bet $100 on the Bills to win the Super Bowl, and they did, you'd win $600. DraftKings Sportsbook has odds for all 32 NFL teams, and here, we'll go over teams bettors should wager some money on and some they should avoid.

Note: For teams we recommend avoiding, we'll focus on those listed closer to the favorite than the longest odds teams. 

Bet It: Buffalo Bills (+600)

Josh Allen #17 and Stefon Diggs #14 of the Buffalo Bills celebrate after scoring a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Miami Dolphins

Photo by Joshua Bessex/Getty Images

We all remember how the Bills' season ended. They scored to take the lead over the Kansas City Chiefs late in the AFC Divisional Round. However, the Bills' special teams coach didn't call for a squib kick. Then, the Chiefs, led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, marched them down the field with mere seconds left to send the game into overtime, where the Bills eventually fell. Now, we can argue about the overtime rules — which are changing — but this is what happened. By the end of that game, the Bills demonstrated that they're amongst the most elite teams in all of the NFL.  And this offseason, they only got better.

Let's look at their notable offseason free agency acquisitions and losses. 

Free Agent Adds Free Agent Losses
EDGE Von Miller EDGE Mario Addison
DT DaQuan Jones EDGE Jerry Hughes
DT Tim Settle QB Mitchell Trubisky 
OG Rodger Saffold CB Levi Wallace
DT Jordan Phillips
TE O.J. Howard
WR Jamison Crowder

Of course, the most notable addition was Von Miller, who adds to an edge-rushing group with youth and depth, but Miller brings that immediate impact and that veteran presence. In 2021, the Broncos traded Miller to the Rams before the trade deadline. His first game with the team was Week 10, and from then through the Super Bowl, Miller had eight sacks and 54 total pressures, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). The Bills lost players like Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison, but their best play is behind them.

Now, let's look at their draft results.

Player  Draft Choice
CB Kaiir Elam Round 1, Pick 23
RB James Cook Round 2, Pick 63
LB Terrel Bernard Round 3, Pick 89
WR Khalil Shakir Round 5, Pick 148
P Matt Araiza Round 6, Pick 180 
CB Christian Benford Round 6, Pick 185
OL Luke Tenuta Round 6, Pick 209
LB Baylon Spector Round 7, Pick 231

The Bills first two draft picks immediately addressed their needs. 

Their first pick in Elam replaced Wallace on the back-end, while their pick of Cook in the second round adds to a backfield that has been underwhelming historically with Devin Singletary and Zack Moss. So, a team already ranked among the elite teams got even better this offseason. Meanwhile, the team that took them down — the Chiefs — got arguably worse.

While the Bills are the favorites, they're the beasts of the AFC East, and probably the crown jewel of the AFC on the whole.

Fade It: Los Angeles Rams (+1100)

Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp celebrate a touchdown against the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game at SoFi Stadium on January 30, 2022.

Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images

RELATED: Matthew Stafford's "Fake Spike" Became a Cowboy Killer

Yes, the Los Angeles Rams are the defending Super Bowl champions, and that is precisely why their Super Bowl odds should be avoided. Sure, every team has its own identity, and historical data for repeat Super Bowl champions shouldn't be this blanket analysis, but it's true—there hasn't been a repeat since three-time NFL MVP Tom Brady and the New England Patriots did it in 2004 and 2005. The Rams still have quarterback Matthew Stafford and wide receiver Cooper Kupp which is a massive win. Still, their offseason saw them lose some talent.

Additions Losses
WR Allen Robinson (Free Agency) EDGE Von Miller 
LB Bobby Wagner (Free Agency) OG Austin Corbett 
OG Logan Bruss (Round 3 of NFL Draft) P Johnny Hekker 
CB Decobie Durant (Round 4 of NFL Draft) CB Darious Williams 
RB Kyren Williams (Round 5 of NFL Draft) RB Sony Michel 
S Quentin Lake (Round 6 of NFL Draft) DT Sebastian Joseph
CB Derion Kendrick (Round 6 of NFL Draft) WR Odell Beckham Jr. (Unsigned)
LB Daniel Hardy (Round 7 of NFL Draft)
S Russ Yeast (Round 7 of NFL Draft)
OT A.J. Arcuri (Round 7 of NFL Draft)

The team did bring in Wagner, who's aging but still playing reasonably well (118 tackles in 2021), and Robinson, who is a much better receiver than he's been able to showcase due to bad quarterback play.

However, this team had minimal impact draft capital and lost impact players like Miller on the edge, a great cornerback in Williams, and Corbett, who was a more than serviceable guard on an already-ailing offensive line. 

The losses coupled with the history of teams repeating are why you need to fade the Rams.

Bet It: Los Angeles Chargers (+1400)

ustin Herbert, right, quarterback with the Los Angeles Chargers, signs autographs for fans at training camp

Photo by Mark Rightmire/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images

While we rave about the Bills as the crown jewel of the AFC, the Los Angeles Chargers may be second in command. When considering the Chargers' Super Bowl prospects, you have to mention their intense AFC West division. Consisting of the Chiefs, Denver Broncos, and Raiders, this will be an action-packed division with every team likely having a winning record. When we look at the Chargers compared to the Bills, there are similarities with their quarterbacks regarding their howitzers for throwing arms. However, Bills quarterback Josh Allen moves better than his Chargers quarterback counterpart Justin Herbert.

The Chargers have assembled a team that could be quite a tough out if they make the postseason. Let's look at this Chargers offense:

Position Notable Players
Quarterback Justin Herbert
Wide Receiver Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Josh Palmer, Jalen Guyton
Running Back Austin Ekeler, Isaiah Spiller, Joshua Kelley
Tight End Gerald Everett
Left Tackle Rashawn Slater
Left Guard Matt Feiler
Center Corey Linsley
Right Guard Zion Johnson
Right Tackle Trey Pipkins III

There are some weak spots, but the Chargers' offensive line has improved with their draft choice of Zion Johnson, and the receiving weapons, Ekeler included, are more than capable of assisting Herbert this season. However, where it gets even more eye-popping is the defense.We won't cover each position but look at some of the star-studded cast.

  • Safety: Derwin James, Nassir Adderley
  • Cornerback: Asante Samuel Jr., J.C. Jackson, Bryce Callahan
  • EDGE: Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack

This offseason, the Chargers signed Jackson, one of the best cornerbacks in the league, and Mack, who will be opposite Bosa, getting after the quarterback. At +1400, the Chargers still have to prove they're capable of winning the higher stakes games, but everything is here on paper. 

Fade It: Green Bay Packers (+1000)

Aaron Rodgers throws a pass for the Packers.

Christian Petersen via Getty Images

RELATED: How Aaron Rodgers Fell in the NFL Draft: A Pick-By-Pick Explanation

If any of these picks come back to bite us, it's this one.

The elephant in the room here is that the Packers traded wide receiver Davante Adams to the Raiders, leaving quarterback Aaron Rodgers with Allen Lazard as his No. 1 option. The team did draft wide receivers Christian Watson (second round) and Romeo Doubs (fourth round), but Watson is dealing with injuries after being drafted out of a small school in North Dakota State. Rodgers has spoken highly of Doubs, but the receiving weapons are weak. This team could focus more on utilizing running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, but Rodgers can only carry them so far.

With their first two picks in the draft, the Packers brought in two Georgia Bulldogs — linebacker Quay Walker and defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt. These are great picks as Walker will fill the void of Za'Darius Smith leaving town, and Wyatt will provide excellent depth behind, presumably, Jarran Reed. Again, the team still has Rodgers, cornerback Jaire Alexander, and left tackle David Bakhtiari may or may not be back at some point. But the NFC will provide competition, and the lack of receiving weapons could prove to be the downfall. 

The Packers are tied for being the third favorite to win it all, and it's tough to envision right now.

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