Many are dubbing the NFL's 2025 season as "the year of parity." The playoff picture is an extended family portrait right now, in-laws and second cousins included. But who is primed to make a run this year and actually contend? Who will make no noise at all? And who is stuck in that middle ground, destined to be a bystander? Let's break down the AFC playoff picture, from the teams most likely to reach San Francisco to those who will be in Cancun early.
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Legitimate Contenders
The NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS keep eliminating doubt. On paper, this team has no business being this good. That's not a shot at the Pats; it's a compliment. Drake Maye was expected to take a step forward, but he ended up taking a giant leap. Stefon Diggs was supposed to be coming off an ACL injury and entering the end of his career, yet he remains a major threat. The defense was expected to be league average, but they've performed like a top-third unit even after moving on from former cornerstones Keion White and Kyle Dugger.
Some point to New England's easy schedule, but that isn't entirely accurate. Since starting 1-2, the Pats have rattled off seven straight wins. Three of those wins came against current playoff teams, and another against a legitimate bubble team.
Trying to justify New England as mediocre is as exhausting as it is futile. This might not be the Brady Patriots, but they are an exceptional team that keeps improving every week. Drink the Kool-Aid; it tastes great.
The BUFFALO BILLS are not where they expected to be at this point in the year. Yes, they're still one of the most respected teams in football, led by the best QB in the NFL. Yet they don't lead their division and have looked vulnerable on defense at times. Buffalo's issue isn't quality; it's consistency- notably a problem most NFL teams would love to have.
Why are they still near the top of the list and a favorite to win the AFC? Two reasons. One, they have the best QB in the NFL. Two, only one other team in the league has more collective playoff experience. That team sits three games out of the playoffs.
The BALTIMORE RAVENS are doing their best impression of the 2024 Bengals: a high-powered offense paired with a defense that gets pushed around by almost everyone. Lamar Jackson missing time didn't help, but Baltimore's defensive issues existed before his injury and have persisted.
Despite their slow start, the Ravens are turning things around. Winners of five straight, they not only reclaimed the AFC North but are firmly in the driver's seat. Home-field advantage may be a pipe dream, but the offensive talent is there. A huge test comes on Thanksgiving in the form of Joe Burrow.
The INDIANAPOLIS COLTS have become America's sweetheart, and they deserve the title. The 2025 Colts show how important a good QB is, but also how a well-built roster can drive success.
Daniel Jones always took blame for the Giants' failures, but he was only going to go as far as that poorly staffed and managed team could take him. His redemption tour is off to a great start.
This Colts team is similar to last year: same elite line, same weapons, largely the same defense. The difference is a QB who can propel them to wins. Like the Patriots, some fans want to chalk the Colts' success up as a fluke. But they've beaten playoff teams and keep improving. Mostly unchallenged in the AFC South, the Colts should host at least one home playoff game.
However, they lost a tight playoff-like game to the Chiefs, which turned everything on its head. It took overtime at home, but you'd want to see the Colts get a win against a Chiefs team many still expect to win the AFC.
Bystanders
The KANSAS CITY CHIEFS just won't go away, but they won't stick around either. Last year, Kansas City was 11-0 in one-score games. This year, they're 1-5. Did they get worse? Unlucky? Something in between? Hard to say. This is the first year of the Mahomes era, since his rookie season, that the Chiefs are not top Super Bowl favorites. What's more shocking is that they just got their first win against a team with a winning record.
Brady and the Pats taught NFL fans not to doubt greatness. Mahomes has earned that leash for the rest of his career. If a team three spots out of the playoffs the week of Thanksgiving could still win the Super Bowl, it would be the Chiefs.
The DENVER BRONCOS are similar to the Patriots: a second-year QB on a team expected to lean on its defense. While true, Denver's offense has done just enough to win. In a year when offense is down leaguewide, having the best defense in football keeps them in every game.
It's not just Denver's quality on defense; it's their depth. Surtain is an unquestioned CB1, but any CB in their nickel package would start on most teams. The D-line is still one of the best in football, with Zach Allen and Nik Bonitto giving O-lines nightmares. The LB corps is top-ten, led by Alex Singleton and Dre Greenlaw.
Still, Denver's offense is suspect. Bo Nix has struggled and relies heavily on the defense. Their 10-7 home win over Oakland wasn't led by Nix. If that's what it took to beat one of the worst teams in the NFL, what happens when Denver hosts Buffalo?
The HOUSTON TEXANS might be the Broncos of the South. Their defense has bailed them out multiple times this year. Will Anderson continues to impress off the edge, and adding Danielle Hunter on a two-year deal created one of the best edge duos in football. Paired with one of the league's best secondaries, led by Derek Stingley, this defense can carry games.
But the offense has been awful. Those who mocked Carolina for choosing Young over Stroud now have a healthy serving of humble pie as the Texans QB struggles. Stroud has dealt with a revolving door in the backfield while awaiting Joe Mixon's return from IR. The receiving corps is solid, led by Pro Bowl-caliber WR Nico Collins, but questions remain: is Stroud really the answer?
Pretenders
The LOS ANGELES CHARGERS are in the midst of a collapse I wouldn't wish on my worst enemy. After three straight AFC West wins, LA is 3-5 over its last eight games. Worse, they lost all three games against current playoff teams during that stretch, each by double digits.
Are injuries the main culprit? Certainly. Two of their last four first-round picks are tackles, and both are out for the season. The rookie RB drafted to start from day one has been injured, and the veteran they signed hasn't compensated.
But the Chargers' issues go deeper than injuries. Their offense, once one of the league's best, has stagnated. Is it Herbert? Harbaugh? Hard to tell. What's clear is that even a healthy Chargers team isn't a contender. That's what matters.
The PITTSBURGH STEELERS are trying to break the record for most unique starting QBs year over year. Inconsistency at the NFL's most demanding position is no recipe for success, even when the latest starter is Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers.
The bigger downfall has been the defense. Traditionally Pittsburgh's backbone, the 2025 unit has been far below expectations. Maybe they relied too heavily on T.J. Watt, who is having an off year, or overestimated additions like Jalen Ramsey. Either way, this doesn't look like Pittsburgh's year.
The JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS lack an identity, which hurts even more after paying their QB $60 million per year for mediocre numbers. The Jags are closer to a Super Bowl than a rebuild, but not close to either. Years of league-worst seasons may have been for nothing. Are the Jags stuck in no mans land? Unless something changes or Travis Hunter becomes the player he was supposed to be, the answer is yes.
