Another solid Thursday night matchup is set as the undefeated Dolphins travel to Ohio to take on the defending AFC champion Bengals. Coming off a 6-1 MNF betting record, I thought now would be a good time to total it all up and see how I — or "we," if you're tailing — have done to this point on Mondays and Thursdays.
Monday has been the stronger day, with a 14-6 record through three weeks. Thursday has seen three straight 2-3 weeks, which is bringing down our average. Still, we sit at 20-15 on the season, giving us a 57.1% average, which is pretty darn good.
Let's get those Thursday numbers up some, though, shall we?
The Spread: Bengals -4
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I was hoping for a little bit of an overreaction by oddsmakers to Miami's 3-0 start and upset over the Bills last week, but no such luck. The line opened at -2, and early bettors hammered the Bengals until the line got to -4. The Bengals turned things around last week against the Jets after a rocky 0-2 start to their season. Joe Burrow lit up New York with three touchdown passes. The Dolphins are in a classic letdown spot after knocking off the Bills last week. Miami survived a punting error, but its defensive front kept Josh Allen in check all day, sacking him four times.
Miami's pass rush was good, but Allen was still able to hang 400 yards on the Miami secondary, which could be problematic if Joe Cool decides to air it out. The Jets had Burrow scrambling a bit and managed two sacks, so Miami will definitely not let him rest in the pocket.
One other thing to consider is that its Week 3 hard-fought win over the Bills, in temperatures that were near 100 degrees, and travel on a short week could take a toll on Miami as injuries start to mount. As of this writing, the Dolphins are getting 52% of the bets, but the Bengals are getting 84% of the money. What that mismatch tells me is that sharp bettors — you know, the ones who do this for a living and know more than you do — are betting heavily on the Bengals. Miami's Tua Tagovailoa might not be 100%, the Bills game was taxing, and the Bengals need this win more. The safe bet would be on the Bengals Moneyline at -195 but only if you're going to work that into a parlay. I can't see the line ticking back down to -3, so grab it at -4 while you can.
Bet: Bengals -4
Over/Under 47
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As was mentioned earlier, the Dolphins' pass rush was successful against the Bills, but the defensive secondary gave up a lot of yards. Miami ranks 31st in opponent passing yards per game with 297. Now it gets a Bengals team that saw Burrow have his first complete game of the season. I think it's going to be a long day for the Miami secondary. That said, we can't ignore the trends, and that is to this point the under is 30-18 on the season (62.5%) according to Action Network. While the Bengals might find some success, I think the Miami offense sputters a bit on a short week after a taxing game, with Tua possibly not at 100%.
Bet: Under
Prop Bets
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Tyler Boyd over 41.5 receiving yards
Ja'marr Chase is going to command a lot of attention from this porous Miami secondary. Xavien Howard should be on Chase most of the night, which will free up other receivers downfield. Tyler Boyd has big-play potential and should be able to stretch the field against the Dolphins. Last week against the Jets, he had four receptions for 104 yards, and his longest went for 56. He just needs one or two big receptions to cover this number.
Ja'Marr Chase over 5.5 receptions
Reception totals have been my favorite player prop so far this season. Everyone is betting on receiving yards, while we get fat on total receptions. We hit Diontae Johnson and CeeDee Lamb's reception totals within the last week. So far, Chase has seen targets of 10, 9, and 16 going back from Week 3 to Week 1. He had five receptions in the Week 2 loss to Dallas but has gone over this total the last two weeks. He will see enough targets against Miami to cover this number.
Joe Burrow over 1.5 Passing TDs (-154)
Joe Cool has gone over this total in two of three games this season. If we're playing this as a statement game for Cincinnati, Burrow is going to come out swinging. Two TD passes, easy!
Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+135)
Coming off a two-reception week against the Bills, I like Tyreek Hill to show up and snag a TD pass in prime time.
Joe Mixon First TD Scorer (+500)
I like to roll the dice on big-money odds, especially if it's covered by a No Sweat promo. Last week, I rolled on George Pickens to score a TD at +650 odds, and it didn't pan out, but he had a killer catch. Last year in the Super Bowl, I bet on Joe Mixon to toss a TD pass, and it paid off huge. I'm not shying away from Mixon landing me another hefty payout.
