HOMESTEAD, Fla. — As the Vice City-branded Goodyear blimp circled Homestead-Miami Speedway on Saturday afternoon, two Joe Gibbs Racing drivers sat in the track's media center.
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The expressions on the faces of Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell reflected how they felt about their championship chances, as did the words coming out of their mouths.
"I mean, I don't have any optimism," said Hamlin, who sits 70 points behind Larson entering the final weekend of the season.
"I don't. I'm here to try to have fun and try to win the race if possible. But I don't. Yeah, I just...no matter what...I mean, there's obviously a chance you can win the lottery as well. But do you really count on that?"
The morose expressions marked a significant change from Chase Media Day on Sept. 2. This event, which took place before Bell won the Chase-opening Southern 500, featured multiple drivers from the Toyota camp talking about how this was their championship to lose.
"I believe that the champion will be a Toyota," Bell said multiple times on Sept. 2.
Yet nine races later, Larson only needs nine points to win the title. Bell needs 67, as well as some major help from Larson.
"I was very confident that it was going to be a Toyota driver that won the championship, and, ultimately, I think whenever we got into the Chase, the 5 car (Larson) had a pickup in performance," Bell said.
"But I still think by the numbers, there have been guys in Toyota cars specifically that have been faster than them. But just, you know, we all shot ourselves in the foot one way or the other."
Larson hasn't had the cleanest nine weeks, but he consistently performed at a high level. He and the No. 5 team celebrated three wins, and they posted an average finish of 6.77.
The Toyota drivers in the Chase — Hamlin, Bell, Chase Briscoe, Ty Gibbs, Tyler Reddick, and Bubba Wallace — all experienced issues over the nine weeks. They committed penalties, fell victim to mistakes on pit road, and sustained damage in on-track incidents.
"I mean, we had the had the car performance, had the speed, and yeah, just execution, lack of it, was a reason why we're not in it and they're in the spot that they are," Bell said.
Hamlin, in particular, entered the playoffs as the No. 1 seed with a 25-point lead in the standings. Yet, he lost his advantage due to myriad issues. This includes speeding on pit road after getting a flat tire, as well as spinning out on his own.
Once again, Hamlin will fall short of his coveted Cup Series championship trophy, but this will be a far different level of pain than what he experienced last season at Phoenix Raceway.
The 2025 championship race featured Hamlin dominating while leading a race-high 208 laps. He had the lead with three laps remaining in the race, but the caution flew for William Byron wrecking in Turn 4.
This set up a trip down pit road and an overtime restart. Hamlin's team opted for four tires; Larson, Ryan Blaney, and Joey Logano all went with two tires. Brad Keselowski, Alex Bowman, and Ryan Preece stayed out on older tires.
Hamlin restarted seventh, further back in the field than Larson, and he could not make up the ground in only two laps. He could only watch as another driver won the championship over him.
This year, Hamlin's pain extended for nine weeks. He did not have any respite.
"I felt like last year was like a sudden death, and this one was just a slow bleed," Hamlin said. "Truthfully. I mean, that really was how it was. I mean, I just was in shock for that, I don't know, 10- minute period from three (laps) to go to the checker waves.
"I'm behind the 5 (Larson) somehow. I hadn't seen them all day, that was a shock moment for me. Then this year, through each playoff race, I mean, I'm on the way home, just thinking, gosh, it's all right, though, we'll have to just make up for it next week.
"And then we've just been tricking, trickling along and staying somewhat mathematically possible by being solid, but this one was definitely a cut to the wrist and just watch it bleed."
