I am going to start this week's column off with an announcement; I finally "Wentz" to a 12-step program and quit Carson. See what I did there. But seriously, there was absolutely no reason the over shouldn't have hit in last week's Commanders/Titans game. In fact, there was only one reason why my 4-3 performance last week wasn't at least 5-2... and it's the same reason Commanders Coach Ron Rivera gave: his quarterback.
A line has been drawn in the sand, and for the rest of the year I won't place a single bet that relies on Carson Wentz to help with an over or a cover. I am making this decision because despite heading into Week 6 ranked fifth in passing yards and with more than twice as many touchdown passes as any other QB in the NFC East, Wentz might be the worst clutch quarterback I've ever seen.
And I wrote all that before his embarrassing performance on Thursday Night Football (including the sentence I am currently writing). So now that that's out of the way, let's move on to Week 6.
I am now 20-22 on the season but this is the week we cross back over .500. I love the board. The two teams with arguably the most significant home field advantages in the NFL (especially if you are judging solely by the sound in the stadium. are home dogs. Vegas shouldn't make it this easy on us but they did!
PLUS— I'm adding a brand new item to the column this week— In addition to three bets I love, two bets I adore, and one bet I would bet a body part on.... we are going to start each week with some Prop Bets to set your table with!
So to quote the late Heath Ledger... "And. Here. We. Go."
Props Bets to Start Your Sunday
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- Patriots Running back Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD (-135).
Damien Harris has a hamstring injury and the Patriots will likely remain conservative throwing the ball in the red area with rookie Bailey Zappe. Bill Belichick spoke glowingly about Stevenson this week, including his skillset in the passing game. Stevenson sounds like a guy who is going to get the ball at the goal line frequently this week against the Browns. - Falcons Quarterback Marcus Mariota Under 208.5 Passing Yards (-175)
Later in this column you can read more about this game, but the Falcons offense is trending in the wrong direction and Mariota hasn't thrown for more than 150 yards in the last two weeks. Now, he faces the 49ers number one ranked pass defense. Even if the Falcons fall behind, I would bet this prop until the number falls below 170 yards, as I don't think Mariota will be able to withstand the 49ers pass rush in obvious throwing situations. - Ravens Running back J.K. Dobbins Over 44.5 Rush Yards (-110).
There are several reasons why this prop bet is a slam dunk, first is the complimentary comments by Ravens OC Greg Roman after Dobbins performance last week. Second is that Dobbins basically tied this total last week while sitting out in the fourth quarter and only getting 8 touches (he will get more this week). Lastly, teams that play immediately after a game in London simply don't perform as well, and the Giants defense has that going against them, along with a primary focus on stopping Lamar Jackson, which should leave some running lanes open for Dobbins.
Bets I Love
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Minnesota at Miami: Miami +3
Miami is one of the home dogs I love this week, even if the Dolphins don't always pack the same homefield punch that some of the other teams we will be betting on do. Chances are Skylar Thompson is going to start at quarterback for the Dolphins, but even so, I think you should hop on this line as soon as possible. The speed of the Dolphins is a massive mismatch for the Vikings secondary. Mostert, Waddle and Hill are three of the fastest skill position players in the NFL. Regardless of who is distributing the ball to them, those speed demons should be able to place intense pressure on a Vikings secondary and linebacking core that is slow and struggles with speed (see the Eagles matchup.)
On the other side of the ball, there is no one in the NFL I would rather have covering Vikings star wide receiver Justin Jefferson than cornerback Xavien Howard. Though I don't necessarily think Howard can eliminate Jefferson from the game, I do think he will force Cousins to pass the ball to other options. Jefferson has received more than 41% of Cousin's passing yards, so Kirk clearly isn't too comfortable moving the ball around for volume.
The Dolphins need to win games like these at home to have a shot at the wildcard later in the season. Don't get hung up on the quarterback issues, the Dolphins are just a roster mismatch for the Vikings and will cover in this game. Boom.
Cincinnati at New Orleans: Total Points Over 43
We learned something over the last two weeks, which is that the Saints offensive coaching staff is still incredibly creative and talented even without Sean Payton. Pete Carmichael has figured out a way to use all of the weapons on the team, partly out of necessity, as the Saints have had some of the worst injury luck in the NFL so far. Receivers like Jarvis Landry and Michael Thomas are still battling injuries and question marks surround the health of Jameis Winston but, Carmichael and the Saints will get creative again this week to put up a host of points against a solid Bengals defense. Alvin Kamara is starting to heat up, just when the league is starting to forget that he is one of the top 5 most dangerous players with the ball in his hands.
Much has been said about the Bengals drop off this year, particularly surrounding the poor performance of the reshaped offensive live. If you were like me and you bet the Bengals NOT to make the playoffs and the under on their win total- you're not too surprised. The Bengals might not win this week, but they certainly are going to score. Last week, we saw the Saints give up far too many explosive plays to Geno Smith and the Seahawks. We will see the same this week, with the incredibly skilled Bengals wide receiving core using the indoor turf in New Orleans to get back on track.
There are simply too many talented offensive players in this matchup to not easily clear 43 points. Boom.
New York Jets at Green Bay: Total Points Over 45
This bet is built on a solid foundation of two stats and one piece of anecdotal evidence.
Stat number one is provided by analyst Warren Sharp: The Packers have the worst pass defense in the NFL against play action, and the Jets use it the second most in the league. I expect the Jets to score both rushing and using the play action pass this week.
Stat number two is that the Packers average 27 points a game at home and the Jets average 27 points per game on the road. Simple math will tell you that adds up to 54, a nice two scores above the 45 point total for this game.
And finally for the anecdote: In their last game at Lambeau Field, the Packers gave up 24 points to the Patriots, despite fourth round rookie Bailey Zappe being thrust into his first NFL game after the second series. Zero meaningful NFL snaps for Zappe prior to this and Green Bay still allowed the Patriots to force overtime.
This Packers defense is overrated by the sportsbooks in Vegas and to make things even worse, they have had to travel all the way back from London ahead of this game. Green Bay's defense will start slowly, and that means this game will end up hitting the over. Boom.
Bets I Adore
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Buffalo at Kansas City: Kansas City +2.5
Do you realize how rare this line is? Patrick Mahomes has NEVER been a dog at home in his entire career. In fact he has only been a dog on the road eight times as a starter and he is 7-0-1 against the spread in those games. Those are money making numbers!!
Look, I understand that everyone on the Bills has been waiting for this game to avenge the loss in the playoffs in Arrowhead last season. All of Buffalo has been thinking about the last 13 seconds of regulation since the minute that game ended. But, sometimes when a team comes out too hyped up they make some mistakes early. Sometimes we have to remember that even when the whole world knows Travis Kelce is getting the ball, he can still put up four touchdowns like he did last week in primetime.
The Bills might be the shiny new toy with the extra motivation, but let's not make this more difficult than it is. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are getting points in Arrowhead and that means something is wrong and we need to capitalize on it. Boom.
Arizona at Seattle: Seattle +2.5
Here is our third home dog of the column and the second one with an elite fan advantage in their own house. Seattle is 59-43-4 against the spread at home since 2010. Once again, those are money making numbers.
Both of these teams are banged up at running back, with Rashaad Penny suffering a season ending injury and James Conner expected to miss this week's game. That means both teams will put some extra emphasis on attacking through air.
Geno Smith is coming off yet another career game and the Cardinals passing defense has proven to be particularly vulnerable this season as they rank last in the league in sacks. Meanwhile, the Seahawks defense is allowing only 21.5 points at home compared to a horrendous 37 points per game on the road.
Divisional home dogs are just too sharp of a bet for us to leave on the table. I am expecting this game to look a lot like the Seahawks Week 1 contest, and Geno still ain't write back. Boom.
One Bet I Will Wager My Nose On
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It's not a secret, even though I have performed fairly well with my bets this season, I haven't been as sharp as I would like on my body part level wagers. That's why this week we only have one bet that reaches that critical level. I am betting my nose on this game because this line STINKS. This is the best line I've seen since week one Bucs v. Cowboys, so get ready!
San Francisco at Atlanta: Total Points Under 44.5
This Falcons team only put up 15 points last week against the Bucs and their point totals have been trending down for three games. Now, they play a defense almost equally as talented in the San Francisco 49ers.
The Falcons are just not the same offense with Cordarrelle Patterson out of the lineup. Meanwhile, Marcus Mariotta cannot seem to build a connection with Kyle Pitts, who has only 10 catches and 22 targets. At this time last year, as a rookie, Pitts already had 19 catches and 28 targets with Matt Ryan under center.
The Falcons just don't pose a significant offensive threat to put up points. They pride themselves on running the football too much for this game to get too high scoring.
On the other side of the ball, In the past week the 49ers traveled to North Carolina, back to Northern California and then all the way back to Atlanta. That's a lot of travel for a bunch of 300-pound offensive linemen to expect them to come out of the gates firing.
There are plenty of stats that support poor offensive outputs for teams traveling from the west coast to the east. Those stats are exacerbated when the team plays at 1 p.m. ET (10 a.m. California time). The 49ers are going to start out sleepy on the offensive side of the ball and that is great for the under.
My final thought is simply that ??A.J. Terrell is a phenomenal corner. I still expect Kyle Shanahan to still figure out a way to scheme open Deebo Samuel on several plays, but if Terrell can force Jimmy Garoppolo to find other ways to attack the Falcons, I think more 49ers drives will end in field goals than touchdowns on Sunday— and that smells like an under. Follow your nose baby! Boom!
