The three national NASCAR series have completed two races of the Round of 8, and now only Martinsville Speedway lurks in the distance. These are the drivers facing must-win situations heading into the weekend's elimination races.
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The Truck Series teams will set the Championship 4 with a race on Friday, Oct. 24 (6 p.m. ET on FS1). Xfinity Series teams will set the Championship 4 on Saturday, Oct. 25 (7:30 p.m. ET on CW). Cup Series teams will set the Championship 4 on Sunday, Oct. 26 (2 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock).
Cup Series must-win situations
Photo credit: Nigel Kinrade Photography
The four drivers below the cutline are William Byron (-36), Joey Logano (-38), Ryan Blaney (-47), and Chase Elliott (-62). All four of these drivers have won races at Martinsville, so it is possible that they could shake up the standings on Sunday afternoon.
The playoff race at Talladega Superspeedway made the objective clear for every Cup Series driver below the cutline. They must win this weekend at Martinsville Speedway, but only one can realistically move above the cutline.
Denny Hamlin took one Championship 4 spot by winning at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Chase Briscoe took another by winning at Talladega. Christopher Bell (+37) and Kyle Larson (+36) are the other two drivers above the cutline.
Their spots are by no means secure, but they would both have to miss out on stage points and experience horrendous outings to likely fall below two of the other playoff drivers. At this point, the two drivers will race each other while expecting a new driver to take one of their spots in the Championship 4.
"I'd rather have a bigger points cushion heading into next weekend, but we'll regroup and focus on Martinsville (Speedway)," Larson said after running out of fuel on the last lap at Talladega and finishing 26th.
Xfinity Series must-win situations
Photo credit: Nigel Kinrade Photography
Only one driver truly sits in a must-win situation entering Saturday's night race. Sheldon Creed is 40 points below the cutline. This is a large deficit to overcome on points alone, so Creed will likely have to score his first Xfinity win to lock up a spot in Phoenix.
The Xfinity Series Championship 4 has two of its drivers. Connor Zilisch and Justin Allgaier both secured their spots on points while a non-playoff driver, Austin Hill, won last weekend's race at Talladega Superspeedway. This leaves two spots available at Martinsville.
The other three drivers below the cutline have more opportunities to shake up the standings with strong points days. This includes Sam Mayer (-22), Brandon Jones (-20), and Sammy Smith (-11).
.@ConnorZilisch and @J_Allgaier are locked into the @NASCAR_Xfinity Championship 4 🔒
A lot movement above and below the cutline after a wild weekend at Talladega. pic.twitter.com/lrkgGBcj8y
— The CW Sports (@TheCW_Sports) October 20, 2025
Jones has a solid opportunity to win the race based on a previous win at the short track. He also had the lead in the 2022 playoff race at Martinsville before teammate Ty Gibbs wrecked him for the win.
The two drivers above the cutline are Carson Kvapil (+11) and Jesse Love (+40).
"I'm not an idiot," Mayer said after Talladega. "We see some good bump and runs at Martinsville and some really bad bump and runs at Martinsville that you can't even call bump and runs.
"I don't want to do that. So I'm gonna go there, be a man of honor, and give it all she has, that's for sure."
Truck Series must-win situations
Photo credit: Nigel Kinrade Photography
The Craftsman Truck Series playoff picture is either the most-complicated or least-complicated, depending on your point of view. Only Corey Heim has secured a spot in the Championship 4, so three spots remain in the bracket.
Rajah Caruth (+14), Tyler Ankrum (+8), and Kaden Honeycutt (+5) currently hold these spots, but none of these drivers can feel comfort heading to the Virginia short track. They are mere points ahead of Ty Majeski (-5) and Layne Riggs (-6).
The only two drivers in a must-win position in the Truck Series playoff field are Daniel Hemric (-32) and Grant Enfinger (-40). Both drivers were involved in crashes last weekend at Talladega Superspeedway and fell into a deep points hole.
