You're one of the six 2-0 teams left in the NFL, and you think everything is perfect. Well in the words of the legendary Lee Corso, "not so fast my friend."
When I previously examined the NFL's 0-2 teams, I pushed for optimism. Now with the 2-0 teams, I am pushing for realism. Since 2007. of the 114 teams that started the season 2-0, only about 58% of them make the playoffs. That means roughly two of the Chiefs, Bills, Giants, Bucs, Dolphins and Eagles will miss out.
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Let's take a look at which teams are at the biggest risk of being on the outside looking in and what could keep them from getting to the postseason.
1. New York Giants
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It's been a dream start to the year for new head coach Brian Daboll and the New York Giants. Saquon Barkley looks healthy again after years of dealing with injuries, and the defense has performed well in the first two games. But if we look deeper, there are some issues for Giants fans to be concerned about.
The Giants have yet to put together anything close to a dominating performance. Both of their wins required fourth quarter comebacks and of the six 2-0 teams, the Giants are the only one that has beaten two winless teams. They also have the lowest point differential (+4) of the six. Beating bad teams in close games is not a long term signal for success.
In addition, Daniel Jones has yet to pass for 200 yards in a game and 2021 first-round pick Kendarious Toney has been a complete non-factor in the offense. With another undefeated team in their division and what is expected to be a fast return for Dak Prescott, the Giants have to get their passing game on track to compete in the NFC East. Ultimately their playoff hopes will rest on their performance in four straight divisional games starting on Thanksgiving Day. While I do believe Daboll is the long run answer, this roster might have too many holes to win this division or earn a wild card.
2. Miami Dolphins
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The Dolphins are responsible for one of the most exciting comeback wins in Week 2. Tua Tagovailoa put up 469 yards and 6 touchdowns in the win over the Ravens, and the world class speed of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle has the league buzzing about Miami. However, the Ravens made a ton of mistakes on defense allowing for deep plays by the Dolphins in the second half. Teams will begin to evaluate the tape on this new Miami offense and play softer and deeper coverages similar to what the Patriots defense had success with. This will force the Dolphins to prove they can win games on the ground and with the short passing game, something Tua has struggled with early in his career.
The biggest obstacle for the Dolphins playoff aspirations is actually their Week 3 opponent: the Buffalo Bills. The Bills appear to be an absolute juggernaut and Miami needs to win this week 3 game at home to keep pace in the race for the AFC East title. Otherwise, Miami will find itself in a loaded battle for a wildcard spot in the AFC.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
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The Eagles win on Monday Night had fans questioning if they are the current NFC favorites for the Super Bowl. I am not quite that optimistic, as I think they were the beneficiaries of some horrendous decisions by Vikings QB Kirk Cousins and a poor game plan that featured only six Dalvin Cook rush attempts. If the Eagles do falter this year, it will be for two reasons: their rush defense and their inconsistency closing out games.
The Eagles have given up over six yards per carry, the second worst mark in the NFL. Philadelphia has been lucky to jump out to big leads early, but if they get behind in a game this porous run defense could prove to be a real problem.
When it comes to finishing games, the Eagles didn't score any second half points against the Vikings. In Week 1, they let a 17-point fourth quarter lead slip to just 3, before converting a critical third and fourth down to ice the game. If the Eagles can't put away teams in the second half of games, they will struggle to put away the division title in the second half of the year.
4. Kansas City Chiefs
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The Chiefs won ugly in Week 2, and the Chargers were able to expose some flaws in the Kansas City offense. If Los Angeles didn't miss several easy opportunities for interceptions, they likely would have gotten the upset win in Arrowhead. The Chargers dared the Chiefs to beat them deep, something that teams never used to do when speedster Tyreek Hill was on the roster. They also did a great job of limiting tight end Travis Kelce.
If teams are going to play soft defenses against Mahomes, he has to develop a better chemistry with JuJu Smith-Schuster in the slot to win. The Chiefs also need a more reliable rushing game. If you take away their longest carry, the Chiefs had only 17 rushes for 41 yards against the Chargers.
They still have one of the best quarterbacks and coaches in the world, so it's hard to imagine Kansas City would falter and miss the playoffs, but this team seems more vulnerable than they have been the last several years. In a division filled with heavy hitters, there are very few layups on the schedule, so they can't afford any subpar showings.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Neither of the Bucs' wins have been particularly smooth because the offense is off to a slow start, scoring only 19 points in Week 1 and 13 offensive points in Week 2. Several of their key weapons have been injured and those that have been healthy have been frustrated enough to create chaos after the whistle. The good news for Tampa Bay is that all of these issues are easily curable and their defense is playing lights out.
The Bucs are one of the deepest and most talented rosters in the league, and they play in one of the softest divisions in football. Even if it takes a few weeks for Tom Brady's traditionally dynamic offense to show up, they have been able to dominate games with defense and rushing.
While there are rumors swirling about trouble at home for Tom Brady and how it could negatively impact his play, I actually believe the opposite: If you are going to sacrifice all that sanctity at home, you make it worth it by crushing it on the field.
The Bucs will be ready to play their best football toward the stretch run of the season, and it would take a monumental series of disasters and a rash of injuries to keep them from winning the division, let alone keep them away from the playoffs.
6. Buffalo Bills
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The preseason Super Bowl favorites have lived up to the hype so far in the first two weeks. The Bills have won their first two games by a combined 55 points. That's more than double the point differential of any other team in the league. They are nearly impossible to force to punt and the defense seems to be extremely formidable even with their best corner Tre'Davious White still recovering from an ACL injury.
I don't expect things to keep going this smoothly for the Bills, as I do think we will see issues with their running game and pass defense exposed as the season goes along. I have questions if their corners can hold up against teams like Kansas City, Miami or the LA Chargers, but these are champagne problems. This team has a lot of motivation after the last 13 seconds of regulation last season, and that should give them the focus to keep winning. The Bills want the one-seed to host as many playoff games in Buffalo as possible and use that "Bills Mafia" home field advantage. At this point. only a Josh Allen injury (which every football fan in the world prays doesn't happen each time he leaves the pocket) could derail the Bills path to the playoffs.
