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Florida State's Projected 2019 Win Total is Just Too High and Risky

With the win total projections being released for the 2019 college football season, what does it look like for the Florida State Seminoles? At 7.5 wins as the over/under, it is a little higher than I would have expected after the 'Noles struggled the last two seasons.

With just 12 wins over the last two years, betting on the Seminoles to win eight games seems a little risky to me. It is definitely possible if the offense takes a leap in Willie Taggart's second season and first year under new offensive coordinator Kendal Briles.

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Vegas and betting sites believe FSU will have a much more successful season in 2019, seeing either a seven or eight win regular season. But will the team improve from last season? There was a loss of talent at some key positions and another season with a new play-caller.

It isn't like the schedule is a cake walk, but there are also a lot of winnable games that, with improvement, could set the 'Noles up for eight wins, if not more. But for that to happen, there will have to be a monumental turnaround from the last two seasons.

At 7.5 wins, betting the over would mean you believe a team that won five games in 2018 and six in 2017 (not counting the bowl game) will make a huge improvement.

However, there is one thing that could completely change this team.

If the offensive line can be fixed enough to just be decent, that could have been enough to win at least one or two more games last season. If the offensive line is just able to get away from a group of turn-styles, the passing and running game will improve.

With reports that Cam Akers played with a bad ankle last season, he could also provide a huge boost to the struggling offense. Akers struggled to succeed in the run game last year, and getting back to the success of his freshman season in 2017, when he rushed for 1,025 yards, is something they will definitely need.

But it isn't like the offense was the only problem on the team. The defense struggled throughout 2018, finishing with one of the worst passing defenses in the country. Brian Burns, the best player on the team last year, is gone to the NFL. What improvements will be made to change the success of the group?

If the win total was set at 6.5, that is a number I could get behind. This team could definitely win seven games, but that extra win to finish at 8-4 seems like much more of a reach at this point. The schedule has a bunch of games that could be close and tough wins, but only a few should-be easy wins.

2019 Opponents (Record Against Since 2017)

  • Boise State (None)
  • Louisiana-Monroe (1-0; 2017 Win, 42-10)
  • Virginia (None)
  • Louisville (1-1)
  • NC State (0-2)
  • Clemson (0-2)
  • Wake Forest (2-0)
  • Syracuse (1-1)
  • Miami (0-2)
  • Boston College (1-1)
  • Alabama State (None)
  • Florida (1-1)

When it comes down to betting money on this team, there isn't much I saw last season that gives me confidence in this team being better and winning eight games.

If a bowl-win counted toward that number, I would feel much better, but eight wins in a Power 5 conference schedule is definitely not an easy feat, especially when becoming bowl-eligible over the past two years hasn't been easy.

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