To end the Sunday slate of Week 3 NFL action, we have the Jimmy Garoppolo-led San Francisco 49ers heading into Mile High to take on the sputtering Denver Broncos. It'll mark Jimmy G's first start of the season after Trey Lance's season-ending ankle injury.
Both of these defenses have managed to hold opponents down point-wise over the first two games. Will that ring true in this one when they face off?
Let's find out.
San Francisco 49ers -1.5 (-110) at DraftKings
The Russell Wilson experience is not going as planned just yet for the Denver Broncos. Of course, it would be unreasonable to think this never gets figured out, but three weeks in, now facing the San Francisco 49ers...now isn't quite the time.
The 49ers have been fantastic on defense this year, holding opponents to just 67.5 rushing yards per game and 142.5 passing yards per game. The Broncos have also been stellar in these departments, allowing just 78 and 165.5 in those same categories, respectively.
This game is going to be a battle of the trenches. Each team has a pair of great pass-rushers, and the offensive lines have two great tackles to book-end their respective offensive lines. The 49ers offense, however, works a little differently compared to the Broncos in that they have more players they can utilize around the line of scrimmage, including wide receiver Deebo Samuel. Not to mention they could get George Kittle back in this one, which could provide a much-needed boost to this offense.
A big part of the 49ers' success on defense has been safeties Tashaun Gipson and Talanoa Hufanga. They will know to keep Broncos receivers Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy at bay.
The bright spot for the Broncos offense has been running back Javonte Williams. Still, the 49ers will likely recognize that Wilson and this passing attack have had trouble getting going, so Williams will be a primary concern.
This game could come down to a decisive turnover, and Wilson and the Broncos are more susceptible to that than the 49ers.
Under 45 (-110) at DraftKings
While we've talked the Broncos offense down, the 49ers could also have trouble in this one--they have more avenues to success than the Broncos.
At 45, the implied team total here for the 49ers is 24 points. This feels right. The odds of the 49ers ascending this don't seem likely when looking at this Broncos defense. As mentioned, it's hard to expect a bunch from the Broncos right now, especially against one of the best defenses in the league.
Russell Wilson Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-150) at DraftKings
This ties into everything we've said about the Broncos offense. This season, Wilson has just two passing touchdowns, passing for one in each game. The value isn't great at -150, but winning prop bets is the goal here.
In fact, if there were a prop for under 0.5 touchdowns, that would be in play as it'd likely have "+" odds.
Sutton and Jeudy have some solid matchups, but it's the 49ers safeties that will help the 49ers continued success in not allowing passing touchdowns.
Javonte Williams Under 52.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at DraftKings
Averaging over five yards per carry, Williams has been a nice part of the offense but has just 22 total carries.
Williams has found the end zone once in two games this season and has 118 total rushing yards.
The 49ers allow the second-lowest rushing yards per game. Due to the passing game struggles, the defense will look for Williams whenever he gets on the field, as he's a candidate to bust through the offensive line and take it to the house.
Five of his 22 carries have gone for rushes of 10 or more yards, and the 49ers are a defense more than equipped to handle that.
Statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
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